PIPAR JAffraies REITERATES OVER WEIGHT WITH a price target of 27....and so this is like the 12 th time in the last 5 or 6 weeks that ANALYSTS have reiterated their position, while the ONLY new coverage taken out on Incyte is GS with a sell and 17 price target and then of course their is MS underweight and 14 a share....seems the later 2 have much more bearing on the stock than the other 12.........seems incy can get NO new coverage and since the 12 have them at a buy or outpreform already,,,,there never is any movement in the shares.....so what does GS and MS SEE that ALL others do not?????????
Actually, maybe jacosa could answer what he SEES that keeps him long. Jacosa seems to have as much knowledge as these Analysts and the GS and MS folks. He has indicated he has a nice position in the INCY stock. As well as a long option position. Yet, 70% of what jacosa writes on INCY doesn't come across as positive at all. Which I actually appreciate. He isn't just blindly drinking the kool-aide. But there has to be something that excites him to keep him in the position. Otherwise; I am sure he could find other(better?) opportunities out there....
What I mostly see is Rachel McMinn's reports. Her information sources are the best around. But I can make the case. There's the on-label Jakafi business, which ought to top out at about $800MM, justifying the full market cap of the company. Presently off-label uses of ruxo, most of which will come on label eventually, ought to be bigger than that (and the general cancer cachexia possibility could get huge). A quarter of the bari market could easily be $1bln (and right now bari looks like the best of the DMARDs present or imminent). McMinn attaches a couple dollars of valuation to the "other cancers" drugs, mostly the IDO inhibitor. So the company looks massively undervalued. BUT "Show Me The Money!!" It isn't flowing yet. And all those ought-to-s in the future COULD break against us [classic poker saying: "I'm about 50-50 in situations where I have a 4 to 1 advantage"] And as we've seen with the PML scare, something like a couple arguably connected cases of, oh, necrotizing fasciitis for instance could knock the stuffing out of the price. Until there are very clear signs that money is going to flow in soon, what's the hurry to buy? Recall the incident in "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" where "Livingston" can't afford to jump the wrong way, so he waits for a commodity to make most of a move he had predicted before he takes his position? Some of that here.
What Morgan Stanly sees is the inside of somebody's colon. Their starting point, that Jakafi is too dangerous for general use, is just false. GS I don't know as much about.
remember he has puts on the stock so he understands that it has limited upside potential. He will readily admit that it is range bound. Maddi will spew $25 by each and every friday with a buyout immediately thereafter.