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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • jacosa jacosa Jun 18, 2013 10:25 AM Flag

    Fundamental bear case

    The bull case is that Incyte can coast to $3bln sales in 2-3 years.

    Incyte may not be able to raise enough cash to finance full participation in the bari registration studies, limiting its future revenues. Selling expenses of Jakafi may remain high, as physicians need continued hand-holding. There HAVE been bleeding incidents with Jakafi, and mechanistically it is expected to promote infection. There may be serious incidents of either of those classes in future. A deep pipeline may be a comfort on cold nights, but it means that dividends are very far in the future, at best, In fact, several candidates may reach the push-to-introduction stage simultaneously, overwhelming Incyte's ability to raise cash. However good bari may look, regulators have been sensitized to the problems of JAK inhibitors by tofa, and the path to market may be more challenging than anticipated.

    Any other fundamental issues? Management popularity doesn't count, but management succession might. Technical stuff belongs in another topic. Narrow ownership will have to be explained if you think it's fundamental.

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    • Why wouldn't Big Pharma see this as an opportunity? HGSI had one drug with others in the pipeline and their partnership with Glaxo was disputed as to whether or not a purchase will take place. While it wasn't over the top a la their offer...the buyout took place. Seems that INCY is ripe for the same.

      • 1 Reply to mrdtino
      • In the present environment, the kinds of pipeline that sell are either very early (no later than basic toxicology) or very late (phase 3 ongoing, or later). The first kind is [relatively] cheap in total dollars. The second kind can be more valuable to a big player (who can hit the market hard) than to a small player (which DOES have the advantage of often being able to get approval with less costly studies than would be expected of the big guy). We don't have specifics of early-stage drugs in the Incyte pipeline, so a bear has to assume that there aren't any good ones. Furthermore, the gradual appearance of the JAK-1 specific candidates suggests that there may have been some sort of an attempt to do a deal, and it fell through.

    • Again, all the reason why they pulled in the upcoming debt, made a payment, issued shares just so that the cycle continues. There will be another round of debt financing to launch these NDA's for continued testing.... INCY is showing signs of hunger (need for $) pains.

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