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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • jacosa jacosa Jul 9, 2013 10:15 AM Flag

    Thinking about the pancreatic CA trial

    We should be getting topline fairly soon, so I'd like to speculate. First: QoL is more important to us than survival, because QoL applies to all toxic cancers while survival applies to pancreatic cancer specifically. I don't think the Street at large will see it that way. So I expect a survival success to be worth about $1.50 immediately, and a survival failure to cost about $0.75 (INCY isn't getting any value assigned from the prospects here). Benefits to both survival and QoL could easily lead to doubling of ruxo (it's still off-label) use within a year, so the initial jump might not be retraced. QoL only would generate almost as much use (And an immediate price drop), so it might be a nice buying opportunity. Most likely, such a partial success would also induce Incyte to look for a drug with the optimum mix of JAK type specificities (full success might also, but you can't do everything at once and there'd be a big push to justify a label expansion for Jakafi). Since complete failure would essentially be a non-event, I would expect the initial loss to be recovered within the month.

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