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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • wampum1m wampum1m Sep 5, 2013 1:14 PM Flag

    Support at $33?

    Any guesses?

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    • Getting briefly away from character assassination, the question can be asked. I'm not a technician, neither do I play one on TV, but the answer is clearly 'no.' There are 2 traditional ways of identifying support levels: the easy one is putting it at the old resistance level--that would be the $25 range. The other is looking afresh at levels where significant downturns have stopped--around $20.

      You all KNOW that I'm bullish on Incyte, but I'm fearful about the budget abyss Congress appears to be headed for. I'm not in "circle the wagons mode" yet, but I'm scouting out favorable spots to do it. I have net cash, so strategies are less constrained than if I was heavily margined. One attractive possibility is selling both stock and puts around a resistance level in case of panic (basically, selling the stock a few bucks above market and collecting cash to get back in later--by force if the damage lasts or voluntarily if it doesn't). I rarely BUY options (I'd rather collect than pay time value, which goes away automatically). I've found that while selling calls gives a nice boost when a rising stock runs out of steam, it is scant protection in a panic, and the need to keep positions balanced slows my reactions.

      Anyway, I've always believed in knowing both the bull case and the bear case. In the present situation, I think the bear case on Incyte is mostly the bear case for the market as a whole. (Imagine, if you will, a NEJM letter next week reporting 2 cases of PML clearly linked to Jakafi: we've already considered what that would mean to the MF indication (dilution of the push for earlier treatment--something everyone treats as a long shot gets longer); it would mean less for the cancer wasting indication (it would probably force use of a companion diagnostic in the PV indication--again, I don't see that the indication gets much respect). So I could see such a letter dropping INCY $3-4 a share. A destructive budget outcome is both more likely and worse.

      • 2 Replies to jacosa
      • Thank you. I looked at the quarterly Q's and the trend seems to be up and down. The June Q was up and the Q before that was down. I expect the next Q to be down but the Motley Fool is promoting it and so it has gone back up. I always get hit by keeping a stock too long so profit taking never hurt anyone, but the potential here is really high. so it is on my radar to get in again under 30. I don't believe it will get into the low 20's, but if it did I won't be burned too much and I can always buy more then..

      • Jacosa, I'm a long time follower of you and highly respect your opinions on this board. One of the few I might add. I do find the comment about the "budget abyss" somewhat perplexing however? Does the abyss have any effect on the PHARMA market? I would think the one dynamic here that plays against any sudden drop, is the heightened industry awareness to identify oncology companies like INCY as potential blockbusters and knock on their backdoor and discuss how they can come together? Am I suggesting buyout? Yes. Because of what you say and the pressures to be the leaders in the industry, it gives greater credence to identifying those organizations who will bring immediate and long-term value to the bottom line/balance sheet and a gem like INCY is one of them. So perhaps you are right and this can inch its way down as ONXX did from time to time. But I would think the Horizon is rather bright and buying on any dips is again in the cards and this baby is hot to trot in its industry.

    • In a previous post "you bailed". Are you looking to get back in? If so, do it NOW! IMHO!

88.49+0.53(+0.60%)Oct 20 4:00 PMEDT