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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • jacosa jacosa Sep 11, 2013 7:48 PM Flag

    Fools talking about Goldman

    Hardly worth mentioning that they have their facts scrambled. The full results of the PaCa trial WERE reported. The magic subgroup was the only one singled out, but that isn't the same as data from other subgroups being omitted--they just weren't treated separately in the report. There was one primary endpoint (survival) and one secondary endpoint (weight change) in the study design; both were reported. We're talking about topline data from a small study that really doesn't have statistical power to generate in-depth information. And yes, the study was a home run and then some. The declared purpose of the study was to see whether a label-expansion study would be feasible; and the result shows that it wouldn't just be feasible, it would be easy.

    You can say that valuing a company with one marketed product at $5.7 bln looks rich, or you can mention that the one marketed product looks certain to generate $1 bln a year sales (that assumes about half of MF patients and 5% of PV patients) and has a decent chance to triple that (with no contribution assumed from solid tumors other than pancreas), and has another product in p3 with a partner that has comparable potential. Doesn't look so richly-valued then.

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    • I think their name speaks for itself.

    • First of all, Motley Fool seems to have assigned or published a journalistic article by someone who neither understands the science, clinical trials or even what is an analyst downgrade!! If the Motley Fool writer had done a simple data check it would have been clear tha Goldman did NOT do any downgrade. What Goldman did was continue with their prior Sell rating, but in reinterating their SELL rating, the Goldman analyst admitted that both he ( the analyst) and his employer Goldman Sachs had been woefully wrong on the price target. Why? Because the Goldman analyst, immediately after the pancreatic cancer results were announced, tool up his Price Target on INCY by, guess how much (!!!???), count it almost 50 effing percent!!!

      So, if the real moronic Motely Fool writer did not even know that Goldman did NOT downgrade, but instead, reiterated his SELL rating, BUT quietly tool his Price Target on INCY by almost 50 PERCENT, then the writer fooled ONLY one person on entity! The Motley Fool writer ONLY Fooled Motley Fool with this article,which by the way spoke of Goldman raising the Price Target on INCY about 10 days ago! Talk about the missing the boat!

      Finally, both prior to the Pancreatic Cancer results and even 10 plus trading days after, the market has spoken, with resounding volume and price, to say that the market thinks very, very little of either or both Goldman' s or Morgan Stanley's analysis. The market has spoken with volume that is definitely not retai
      Investors, but rather primarily institutional investors! So much, for fools and fooling! Motley Fool!

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