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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • jacosa jacosa Jan 10, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    Maybe a way to make sense of it

    Yeah, it's a company with great potential, but why the price move now?

    I think a mechanics of institutional investing argument gives a framework for a plausible explanation,

    Typically, an institutional money manager is given a menu of baskets of stocks and a suggested distribution among baskets. He can bend the distribution, especially if he undoes deviations that didn't give an advantage quickly, and he can tweak the contents of each basket.

    What I can imagine happening is that many baskets, be they health care, domestic consumables or mid-cap, have added Incyte with the new year, and also, based on a strong 2013 finish, the baskets that contained Incyte before now contain more of it; also because of the strong finish, a lot of managers are tweaking within-basket allocations of Incyte upward. So several tendencies are boosting demand for this already-scarce issue.

    In that model, the risks are that come April or so, suggested allocations to health care and midcap baskets are likely to drop, and that individual managers (who resemble private investors more than the other workings of the industry do) may decide at some price to stop overweighting INCY. The possible bad result would be an April/May slump. Announcement of the label-expansion trial for Jakafi in PaCa in March or April could at least head off within-basket reductions.

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    • No way to tell, Jacosa. I still have a gnawing feeling that some institutional funds have found out something that people like us don't know. Akin to Wei of Jefferies saying in his report from late last week that he had picked up some info on the IDO trias from 4 docs. Maybe some info has also somehow gotten out to some funds about the PanCa subgroup analysis, which INCY management felt may leak out, and the subgroup's further implication for other oncolgy targets, as Dr Levy has suggested. Looks like both are headed for registrational trials in 2q or 3 q. I think we will find out in the next 60-90 days. I think info is leaking out from the clinic (s). Wei would not have reported if his info on IDO was improper, or frowned upon by the FDA. And, the PanCa Phase 2 subgroup info was held up as a INCY company management choice/decision, for competitive reasons.

    • You are over thinking IMHO! Enjoy the ride and your weekend!

90.21+2.09(+2.37%)Jul 29 4:00 PMEDT