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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • MasterSparrow MasterSparrow Sep 13, 1999 2:27 PM Flag



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    • for your posted article:

      Just found this new one with even better info:

    • for the informative points contained in your
      prior messages in response to the market's overreaction
      to the recent patent ruling. In this hothouse of
      emotion and knee jerk reaction, a cool head is most

    • thanks for the reply. I don't dispute at all your
      well conceived reply. I agree with you on CRA except
      on one point. I've always assumed that CRA was going
      after the 5' ends of the genes and mining rare genes
      not picked up since they are expressed at low levels.
      Can they make money at this? I'm not sure and I have
      not bet on them by buying any CRA stock. I expect
      that CRA will sequence the human genome and then move
      on to every possible genome with profit potential.
      Of course I realize Drosophila is not finished and I
      am very skeptical about their approach toward
      assembling the contigs.

      As for INCY, they have yet to
      establish the proteomics database as a viable product. I
      recall that they said early '99 as the launch, but I
      don't see any sales. Really, their only product now is
      LifeSeq, and it is under assault. HYSQ now has a
      competitive product and just today I read about competitive
      software from Even though Randy Scott says
      that LifeSeq will be on every academics desk within
      2-3 years these are not the old days where they could
      dictate their terms. Furthermore, aren't you concerned
      that AFFX will prevail on the patents and limit
      Diadexus's potential? I am. I would not bet on AFFX patents
      being overturned. PCR seemed simple, too, and it
      withstood a vigorous attack from DuPont. My point is that I
      would have gone for a license from AFFX. I think
      management screwed up on this. I don't think either one of
      us knows if a license offer from AFFX early on was
      fair or oppressive. It could have simply been greed on
      INCY's part. I assume from your reply that you are
      satisfied with management. I am not. Except for a brief
      period the stock has moved laterally. I know the
      argument of being in for the long term. But to get there
      you need a management team that will take you to the
      next level. Based upon the number of missteps the past
      three years, I think a change at the top is in order.

    • Might trade down to $22 before staging a rebound.

    • It'll be interesting to see if Incyte will be
      able to deftly manage the transition and broadening of
      its base of clients. I would expect that future
      renewals of existing clients will be for terms that result
      in either lower fees or for more services at about
      the same fees. I would expect that it'll be hard to
      charge existing renewing clients more than what their
      academic clients will be charged. I assume that academic
      partnerships are less lucrative than what they get from
      Pfizer, etc.

      I suspect that Incyte will be pushing
      out their estimates of their return to profitability
      to 2001. Hopefully, they will have news of one of
      their clients entering clinical trials using a drug
      based on Incyte databases.

    • CRA is now officially worth 2x INCY.

    • Looks like the buyers have all come out of the woodwork and spent their money this morning...need some more folks to come out to push it back above $25.

    • Nice reaction to the two bits of news...not earth shattering but every rebound begins with a single step. Given the goofy ways INCY trades it might be enought to break back above $25.

    • I sold a portion at 39 and loaded again at 23
      1/2. I'm in for the long hall, if I can double load
      along the way I'll play. Anyone that knows the
      industry, knows that INCY is a bargin at these levels. AFFX
      will be a good short in mid November.

    • And as we can see from yesterday's press release,
      the invasion of academia has already begun. Sure, the
      margins will be significantly inferior to those available
      from big pharmas, small pharmas, and biotechs, but
      increased revenue is increased revenue.

      Unless the
      unthinkable happens, and AFFX somehow manages to convince a
      series of judges that INCY not only has no patent
      protection for its GEMs but that a portion of revenue
      derived from LifeSeq access agreements now belongs to
      AFFX, I have no long-term concerns regarding Incyte.
      (And I think the odds of that scenario unfolding are
      very low indeed. It is far more likely that at some
      point the scope of AFFX's patents will be reduced, and
      INCY will have a safe niche in which to sell

      Later this year, when I have some more liquid capital,
      I plan to increase my INCY holdings. Next year
      looks like a very exciting one for Incyte. The first
      announcements of drug candidates derived from INCY databases
      should emerge, Diadexus should finally make its presence
      felt, INCY will finish applying for patents on every
      human gene, and the current trickle of granted patents
      will become a torrent. I'm curious to discover what
      INCY plans to do with its sequencing capacity once the
      expressed genome is finished. Will the resources be turned
      over to Diadexus?

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