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Real Goods Solar, Inc. Message Board

  • miamigent1 miamigent1 May 18, 2013 12:13 PM Flag

    RSOL- Irrational exuberance

    Shorted RSOL again @ 3.39 and again after hours over 4.
    Poor 10Q this week- profits down 28%, revs down 8% and they are almost out of cash at 3.5M as of March 31st, and burning.
    Overall bearish rating from analysts, and that's before yesterday's irrational +130% move on not much more then speculative musings from a Seeking Alpha poster who is long RSOL.
    Gravity is our friend.
    Good weekend, all!


    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • 1999 again baby... making serious cash

    • Don't you just love guys to proud to admit they blew it! The big man has a little pocket book. They stand like deer in the head lights when these gems are discovered. WHAT is more foolish is those who are still looking at what's behind them and not BIG contracts in front of them. ****New Partnership **Lennar Corporation. I think it's a name that many people recognize as Lennar is one of the largest homebuilders in the country. I think, in fact, they are in the top 3. And Lennar has made a strategic decision through a new subsidiary, a new division that they have formed called SunStreet Energy Group and I believe they recently launched their website, which I suggest for those who are interested to go look at that. It's an excellent informative website.
      SunStreet is a subsidiary, a division of Lennar, and their entire mandate is to bring solar to new communities. As you know, residential solar has been vastly deployed in existing homes, but new homes remains a channel of substantial volume and growth. And Lennar, as one of the largest homebuilders in the country, has made a strategic decision to first, by focusing on their own pipeline of new homes and then through SunStreet Energy by essentially offering very high-value proposition to all new homes across the country. And we are a strategic supplier to them, and as I mentioned in the earlier announcement, responsible for engineering design, installation and service as they ramp up the deployment of solar in the new homes in these new communities. And we, in fact, did begin a ramp-up this past quarter, so the process has started

      • 1 Reply to rchites
      • joycecom May 19, 2013 1:44 AM Flag

        I would hardly call RSOL a gem, rchites. They just recently escaped delisting by the skin of their teeth.

        RSOL had only 3.5 million dollars cash as of March 31st and has to have burnt through much of that by now. While nearly all housing related stocks are showing increased earnings and revenues, even including the very sick mortgage insurers, RSOL just turned in their 10Q last week showing a 28% decline in profits and an 8% decline in revenues over same quarter last year.

        The book value of a share of RSOL stock was 14.7 cents as of March 31st. It has to be considerably lower than that now. Even at 14.7 cents, that means that as of Friday's close, RSOL was trading at 27.5 x's book. That is not a defendable ratio for a struggling installation company with constricting margins.
        If their book value is half of 14.7 cents today, that would equate to RSOL trading at 55 times book value. Absurd.

        RSOL is presently overpriced at 4.03


    • I hope you have enough dry powder to average up your short to $12. Yes this is a toy for hedge funds right now but you are a fool who needs to learn how to trade - hedgies love feasting on noobs like you. Do you think 9million volume who did not take profits at the end of the day, coupled by new momentum traders discovering this and coming in monday, and sector rotation into Solar, will let this fall? Have fun losing your entire cost basis by Tuesday.

      • 2 Replies to phoqoo
      • Thanks for your concern, phoqoo. I've evolved to not putting more than 5% in any stock. I'm not at half that. That's key, inasmuch as you said. I can start a beard this Saturday morning and cover when able to play air guitar for ZZ Top, if need be. That's never the plan, though- I'm into velocity.
        Who knows exactly where to begin a short? My average is 8 x's higher than where RSOL's PPS was less then 6 months ago (.40). And RSOL's Balance Sheet has deteriorated in the meantime.
        Don't necessarily disagree with your nearby view. Newton's Law will be appearing, though. The irrational exuberance will subside.
        Let me reciprocate my concern. Safeguard those fantastic profits- it's already a 10 bagger.
        New to this forum, only.


        Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • Some people need to learn the hard way.