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ATP OİL & GAS AO Message Board

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  • observer_65 observer_65 Mar 1, 2005 8:07 AM Flag

    What basis

    I don't know if there was enough info generally available when the stock was 12 to enable an outsider to envision the kind of move you've experienced. I've been smart and I've been lucky. Lucky is better. (I've also been might dumb.) Your experience is not the norm.

    FWIW, I focus strictly on the Gomez. I treat the rest of their GOM properties and their North Sea holdings as a handsome bonus. Gomez appears to be a monster by any measure. The 3 untested and re-enterable wells have all been reported to have logged the same productive (and potentially productive) horizons as the tested well, so they may well be productive (dare I suggest massive) as well. In terms of potential cash flow, I don't have the expertise to even guess. The one tested well appears to be capable of 9 digit annual production at today's prices. I don't know to what extent it will be choked back when it's on production.

    The bottom line is that I can't even hazard a guess as to where the stock is going. A look at where it's been and an even cursory understanding of the outlook for oil and gas today on this side of the pond suggests that the path of least resistance is upward. I wish you continued good luck.

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    • Observer, I am going to reply to you with this so that you may offer the rebuttal/alternate view. The person points out that they are new and as a new investor I would recommend that they pay attention to the transactions of insiders. Regardless of the reasons the insiders may have for selling, it has been my experience that insider sales is not a positive. The fact is we do not know for sure what the future production and/or cash flow will be while the insiders certainly have at least a more informed idea.

      I recommend monitoring all filings with the SEC at

      I will certainly qualify this by saying that I also had the opp. to hold shares bought @ $11.50 and continue to buy as it has risen but did not because of the insider sales. So, you, Observer, have been right and I have missed a great move.

      • 1 Reply to dtbdfb
      • dtbdfb:
        I agree that insider transactions should be taken into account in reaching a buy-sell-hold decision. It's just that the level of sales here relative to the very large remaining holdings of the sellers, to say nothing of their unexercised stock options, suggests no more than sensible diversification on their part, IMO.

        FWIW, I have been adding to client holdings here, and expect to continue to do so. In my many years in the investment business I have never seen an industry background that was so conducive to growing wealth, and this management appears unusually adept at being in the right place at the right time. I think we are still in the relatively early stages of the move. One man's opinion.

    • Good post. The Gomez is huge and the reading that I get and obviously you have the same feeling, is that there is a high percentage chance of other large wells being developed in that immediate drilling area. Production volume over the next 18 to 24 months should double just from that field alone. Then you have the North Sea project which is being mentioned on a regular basis and if you read between the lines I believe management feels it has potential along the lines of the Gomez Field. Looking at the BIG PICTURE; IMHO, I think we are presently looking at the tip of the Iceberg and there is a great deal of upside potential left in this Stock.