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Onvia Inc. Message Board

  • mrmonarch2000 mrmonarch2000 Jan 30, 2002 12:49 PM Flag

    Added still more to my position

    No gain of course --- yet.

    Doing what I can to help in the "get us over $1" cause by taking a few more shrs out of circulation. I suspect it's me, 25%, and a couple MM's doing most all of the buying lately. Am I right 25%? Are you loading up, too?

    In terms of cost position, this is my #2 holding. May take 1st place soon.

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    • Bilsbrothers,

      So Onvia gets out of a $700,000 per quarter lease.....and moves into a $400,000 per quarter lease. Have they saved $700,000 per quarter?.......or only $300,000 per quarter.

      I'm not saying that it is not a problem.....but I think you may be forgetting that Onvia will be paying rent wherever they go.

      Onvia is heating and lighting and cleaning toilets on floors they don't use? I don't think so......And isn't Washington always looking for additional prison space?

      Come on....ease up just a bit. Call up some of your buddies who still work at ONVI.

      Somehow....I don't think you are long this stock.


    • And that bad-boy is a triple-net lease. Throw in taxes, insurance, heat, light, swamping out the toilets, etc. Big Bucks!

    • FYI: This is from their 10-Q:

      In February 2000, the Company signed an amended lease agreement for new
      corporate office facilities. Monthly lease payments range from $218,000 to
      $257,000 over the ten-year term of the lease. Total obligations over the ten-
      year term of the agreement are $28.2 million. Minimum lease payments on all of
      the Company's non-cancelable operating leases range from $2.6 million to $3.3
      million over the next five years.

    • You need to notch the "real estate problem" up a bit. Closer to $1MM per Q. And it won't go away easily. The building is in a difficult location; it looks like a prison from the outside; the interior decor (courtesy of G. Ballman, an extraordinarily bad designer) is truly butt-ugly and finally there is a glut on the office space market in Seattle

    • bilsbrothers,

      No doubt there is a real estate problem.

      I guess time will tell if ONVI can solve this problem. There were 4 homes for sale in my nieghborhood one month there is one......mine. I feel pretty good about it.

      Onvia needs to move back into their old facility.....move to a new facility......or negotiate out of their lease......or be bought out by a company that needs office space.

      Solving problems is part of what Onvia needs to do......I figure that the "real estate problems" are costing Onvia about $250,000 per quarter. I don't believe this is what will drive the company under.......and I think it is a problem that can, and will get solved.

      Maybe the stock can go up a nickle if they solve it.

      I'll be much more interested to see if they can grow exchange revenues....without an outside sales force.


    • Base rent may be that low. Triple-net and gross facilities operating expense, well, let's just say that it is a mighty big building with a ton'o infrastucture T.I.ed after move in...

    • So not to nitpick semantics, but why did you refer to this as "high risk roll of the dice"?

      You and I both know that there is no serious delist threat here. The only question near term is whether 10 consecutive days of >$1 in April will be achieved through some combination of outside investors like myself and mgmt buyback, or through reverse split. Current float is roughly 20M shrs. What would happen to shr price if say 6M (say 5M via shr buyback) of that were more or less "permanently" taken out of the mkt over the next couple mths? Assuming we have a neutral general mkt during the period? Worst case would be the reverse split, which would have no negative impact to shr price at all.

      If mgmt REALLY wanted to just take cash out of the company, their best plan would be to wind down operations NOW. Instead it looks like they're choosing to grow company value and then benefit from the increased price of shrs down the road. And I don't think we're talking about a very long road.....

    • mrmonarch,

      I have over 50,000 shares now.....and I believe that the Commission has over 500,000 shares....maybe more. We have been picking up the stock over the last 2 months.

      I'm extending my time horizon. I'm interested in whether ONVI can be cash flow positive with a load of cash in the bank by the end of this year. If they do it........the stock will be one heck of a lot higher than $1.00....IMO.

      I would assume the story will be known with the results of the quarter that ONVI is in now.....we may see that progress was made in Q4......but that Q1 2002 will be the one to watch.

      Just my opinion.


      • 2 Replies to balooga2_2000
      • Please don't take offense here, but let me get this straight.

        You've recently invested over $25K of your own money and members of your group invested over a quarter of a million dollars and NOW you are calling the company to see what they are doing? Does that make sense to you? what is considered sufficient DD to make you invest?

      • Won't comment on the actual number of shrs I hold. Rather like to speak in terms of % of current portfolio value (cost position and/or current mkt value). Suffice to say I've been buying almost every week since mid Oct and my cost position is roughly 12%.

        I think you're spot on in your analysis of this situation. "Virtually zero" downside risk. Upside is the big unknown, but $1.25 near term achieved without reverse split is 90% likely IMO. Biggest risk is in tying up too many resources in this one investment to the exclusion of others that might offer even higher long term performance (if one can imagine that).

        Like you, so long as mgmt continues to execute as they've been doing these past several qtrs, I'll continue holding. I just love highly specialized niche businesses. Expecting to hold all that I own at least through 2003.

    • ya caught me red-handed!

      Currently my #5 position, market-value.

      Had to get in there before the buybacks.....

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