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Endocyte, Inc. Message Board

  • bubbajones6689 bubbajones6689 Apr 16, 2014 10:24 PM Flag

    Chances of NOT getting the EU decision??

    Realistically, what are the chances of not getting a positive decision from the EC? Have they ever denied after favorable CHMP decision? Seems unlikely but I want to know my risk. 5%? If so the stock could tank 50%. Hopefully not.

    Also, when is the decision expected? Sure seems like someone (hedge funds ) wants to hold it down to accumulate more or keep it down for a better buyout price (maybe Merck).

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    • Dunno Bubba, but it's indeed rare that they would reject after a seemingly unqualified nod from CHMP. And remember, in the eyes of the CHMP and EU, the applicant is really Merck, not little Endocyte. At the end of the PR, it said EU decision usually happens within 3 months of CHMP nod. Recently though, Roche had a drug approved for non-Hodgkins Lymphona (sorry, can't recall the drug name right now) - CHMP nod came Jan 24 and EU approval followed March 28, so 9 weeks or so. It's not quite 4 weeks since CHMP for V, so we have a few weeks to wait.

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