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EXCEL MARITIME CARR Message Board

  • slimtrading778 slimtrading778 Apr 30, 2008 5:27 PM Flag

    GNK SLAMMED ESTIMATES

    est was $1.50

    Earnings = 2.57 total / 1.65 excluding extraordinary. Divided increase to 1.00 from .85. killed it on all fronts.

    Have no fear. Good things coming friends.....

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    • LEAPS such as you are suggesting don't move as much as in the money or close to the money options. I buy less than 6 month options as close to the money as I can. With DRYS, the option premium is pretty high, but they move in big swings. I have the June 85s, they are up 2.00 from 8.00 to over 10 today. Might sell them as DRYS seems to be holding 80 pretty well. I trade a lot though, this is not for everyone.

    • Would you see more value in buying an underwater option, like a $35 put for EXM in late '09, or do you buy in-the-money options regardless and pay a higher premium?

      I would like to hedge my investment a bit and when I sell the stock I can then be short with low risk using the 09 puts.

    • Trading them. Never hold options to expiry. 95% that do lose. They are a trade to hedge against shares held long.

    • In late 09. That's when the deliveries will start to overwhelm demand, even very strong demand. NOT any effect now. There is still a shortage and rates will likely spike to new heights this year and be at an all time average most of this year.

    • Nevermind, I didn't think that through. The 88 put options will go up in price if the stock price goes down. Sorry bout that, I am not an options player, even though the premise is fairly simple. 88 is near break-even at this point, so you are guessing a drop. I still hope that option has a few months to expire as I don't think you're gonna gain anything exercising it before fall.

    • Bashing a stock at 27? What the hell are you talking about? I was trading around the deal. Never talked about the company. Not smarter, just reasearch the crap out of the industry and the companies.

    • You're sounding awfully arrogant Audio. Especially for a guy bashing a stock at $27 which promptly ran to $47.

      You're big on "refute my point" posts, so I'll respectfully ask you to refute that one.

      And yes, we all know you are so much smarter than all of us, so quit saying it. I'll be more than happy to be dumb and ringing the cash register than smart and broke.

    • You can learn a lot reading about HHI and Daewoo and SPP and the like. Don't take my word, read. They are making record profits. Some OWN steelmakers.

    • Aside from great earnings on a regular basis, 3 real positives to focus on for EXM and the industry:

      *Price for used ships is still high and growing
      *Able to pay down debt and raise dividends
      *Leased out an old ship for 50% higher than the current lucrative lease - especially positive for EXM with the new large fleet of time charters expiring and ability to convert day rates into charters if they choose.

      Unsaid is the fact that interest rates are still coming down, lowering the debt service and increasing the leverage on new ships.

      Wait until EXM raises the dividend

    • They may have finessed the numbers:

      "Total operating expenses decreased to $6.4 million for the three months ended March 31, 2008 from $15.0 million for the three-month period ended March 31, 2007 due to the gain on the sale of the Genco Trader, off-set by higher vessel operating expenses, general and administrative expenses and depreciation and amortization related to the operation of a larger fleet. Vessel operating expenses were $10.9 million for the first quarter of 2008 compared to $6.4 million for the same period last year."

      OCNF kicked out the CEO and the CFO for being cute with earnings reports. In this case, nobody will boot PG, but it appears that he is trying to be cute.

      • 1 Reply to audiophule
      • Audio, I've been reading your extremely redundant posts for weeks now, and I just can't figure out your angle. Are you short or are you just a good samaritan warning us of terrible things to come?

        You were beating this same drum when EXM was at $25, now we're at $40, what will you do when we hit $50? Which we will and we both know it. We are a decent earnings report and an increase in div away from that.

        You spend an exorbitant amount of time on dry bulk boards. Wouldn't you like to the ride the wave up, and then in '09, short if the world is coming to an end because of newbuilds?

        I ain't no rookie here so don't ask me to refute your points, I'm long until $50 and we all know it. I'm just curious about your motives. I'm amazed at the time and effort you put in preaching about newbuilds. Must be short a ton.

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