"shipping time charters will be a thing of the past."
Please tell us you're kidding. ROFLMAO! Shipping is a commodity that can be mined by anyone with the desire to do so. If Harry says he'll ship it for less cause he bought a shiney new boat, what's to stop John from hiring him?
The desperation in pumping up this POS because you all are just starting to realize what a turd you bought is amazing.
IMO - shipping time charters will be a thing of the past. Rates will go to a commodity/weight based based tarrif. This is already occurring in some carriers. Based on the amount a new Panamax costs these days rates must change and go higher. Just think what you would pay if there were only 2 or 3 firms with assets like Mitsubishi.
Higher rates= higher stock prices for you shorts
I've been following shippers since 07. Just not on yahoo, came here cause my private google group fell apart due to lack of action. Contrary to what you think, I do know what I'm talking about. Glad thats your only talking point though.
Anyway, as you probably know, shipping sector isn't really the place to be for the next couple of years. I'm only here now due to the recent sell off. I expect a bounce back to the top of the trading range and then I'm out again. No long term gains here for awhile. I will be willing, however, to wager that GNK is never valued at 2.5x the market cap of EXM, over say then end of 2011.
If you knew the industry, you would know that Peter G. is well respected. Panayotides, eh, not so much. Palios of DSX is probably most respected. EXM is overvalued. GNK is not. Your couple of days of being around would hardly give you the knowledge to see that. You talk in big broad strokes only. You need to auger down to the details, especially ship values, ownership and newbuilds. Those would be a good start.
Google shows its market cap at 660 right now. They have better charters, but a lot of those run out this year too, and basically nothing beyond 2012. Their ships aren't as overvalued on the books as EXM, but they are still overvalued.
I don't care about book value either. Nor do I care about earnings. I do care about free cash flow, and I do care about the balance sheet. GNK should't be valued much more than EXM, definately not 2-3x as much. The better time charters GNK has over the next 2 years isn't enough to justify that kind of valuation disparity.
They earn a lot more. I don't care about book value. It is vapor. You don't really know anyting about the industry or the companies in it, do you? By the way, GNK market cap is 600, I'm saying 660-720 would be fair value. EXM is worth about half. They don't own 7 of their ships. 3 should be scrapped. GNK has better time charters. They will earn $4 about this year. EXM will earn about 40 cents.
Lol, so a company that has basically the same cash/debt picture, has 800 mil less in "book value" for ships, trades at a 40% higher market cap, is undervalued by 10-20%, and EXM is overvalued by 50%? You're telling me GNK is worth 3X as much as EXM?
Wow. I'd agree that GNK is definately worth more, but I'll take 3 EXMs everyday over 1 GNK.
I don't simply go to the PE. I go to great lengths to study their time charters, the debt levels, their ships ages and values, their history of management practices, their management make up, the industry health, supply and demand for their vessels... and much, much more. Have for years. They are "selling" for 1/3 their book value because, quite simply, their book value is inflated 300%. Their ships are NOT worth any more than others and they are worth about 1.3 billion. Their time charter coverage is very low so it adds little if any value. This company is worth about what their ships are worth plus their cash, less the debt owed. No more, no less. 81 million share times $5.75 is $465 million. Debt of $1.2 billion subtracted from the ship values of $1.3 billion means they are vastly overvalued.