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Sequoia Message Board

  • dpriver1 dpriver1 May 13, 2009 4:46 PM Flag

    Am I the only person....

    who owns this stock? There have been a total of 2 postings since last February! Is there any positive news out there? Why has this stock lost value this past month while all of my other holdings have made money? Anyone?

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    • I have started a position, and have been adding to it when they reopened the fund for new subscription. Its already 6% of my equity portfolio and planned to keep on adding till it reaches 10.

      The managers have their own money invested along with ours, and to me it makes a lot of difference.

      My other top 5 holdings,
      BRK.b - 16%,
      MKL - 10%,
      LUK - 10%,
      FAIRX - 6%,
      BAM - 6%.

    • Roth in the AR p. 12:

      "The Great Recession has momentum and has taken an enormous financial toll on our economy and all of us. An enormous adjustment of values has already occurred. The price of everything has been rolled back ten years and price does matter - a lot. I recently was quoted "a bottom will not be made until asset values are stupid, stupid, stupid cheap." This is a necessary, but not a sufficient condition, and I think we are now on the third and last stupid. For example, NY is on sale...and, for another example (and pardon the self-serving nature of this comment) blue chip REIT stocks are now on sale."

    • Thanks for sharing your notes - very interesting and most appreciated.

      Appreciating the request to not blog Friday's ringdangdo at the St. Regis, the gent you met...any interesting insights from your discussion you can share here? (those comments are extracurricular activities!).

      Show tonight at Izod should be great. Re: BS - perhaps too much inside baseball but Bob the Blogger is worth reading as a music fan:

      All good on this end. Still miss Bill Thomas' musings.

    • He then told me, “In regards to your questions, which I really won’t answer, but they are pretty good questions, I will say one thing, and I think you will like my answer. Credit Markets suck, but there will be opportunities in the future.” I think he was referring to what Sam Zell (his friend) was saying about being able to buy quality CRE at much less prices than today’s, once foreclosures start happening in CRE.

      This is what Sam Zell recently said, “We all drank too much Kool-Aid. Between 2003 and 2007, 50% of all commercial real estate traded. It ended up being over-leveraged. All cash buyers like Calpers played the leverage game instead of buying for cash. Very few who bought from 2003 to 2007 are above water. You can call it credit crunch, seller’s strike, buyer’s strike, either way you have more debt than you have value. We won’t see new equity players until the banks foreclose. It’s going to be a couple to three years before the ownership structure changes. Prices are down 25% to 30% on what’s sold. The reality is there ain’t much trading. One of the great lessons of Confucius is bankruptcy courts don’t respect maturities. That’s your General Growth (Properties) story. Sales occur when there are prospects. Tell me where the prospects are? I’m happy to buy a hotel when you can tell me the President will stop peepeeing ( filters would not allow Sam's exact quote) on conventions. If owners have no equity, owners have no incentive to do anything. Who’s going to put up tenant improvement money? Publicly held REITs have gone down 65%, arguably too far. That’s real daily pricing. You have a lot of loans at floating rate, you don’t miss payments at 1-2%.”

      During March of 2009, Steve Roth said, “Even so, it was challenging to detect hope among the veteran CEOs in attendance. Interest rate spreads are still way too high for the economy to recover quickly and property prices are at a 10-year low.”

      I hope you are healthy and well!

    • Sequoia has had a sub par month because it owns few technology stocks and few bank investments. These are the types of investments that have done well for the last 30 days.

      There have been few posts - because you buy Sequoia and hold it for 20 years. Daily activity is just noise.

166.98Jul 22 6:45 PMEDT