Stock77, Know you from your great posts at VHC. I am long VHC with appreciable position. I believe I can help you with analysis here. I am an anesthesiologist and managing partner of a surgery center in LA. Three of our investors are urologists with great academic knowledge. Do you have any links discussing the products here. I will have them review and even call the urologist in the UK who use the products. I can tell you that a field trip is worth a thousand words with new meds. Regards and thanks for posts with VHC. I bought VHC in April and follow all your post.
reading through the filings stellar keeps mentioning raising money and looking for acquisitions... maybe they raised the money for another product ??? if that happens it will not be good for them... consider that as a reason... they didnt need the cash !! profitable and money in the bank... plus 1.3 million in added milestone payment.... i say they are going to try to buy a product...
Stellar will not be sold for much less than it is worth, management, long time VC, and own about 50% shares outstanding. I believe that stock issuance with the warrants was to push the ownership of company friendlies over 50%, preventing hostile. Why would they do this? They know the results of Phase II. they know they are good....and they want to prevent a cheap acquisition
i get the math.. believe me i do.. however these assumptions are far fetched in my opinion... besides if that will be the case this stock will never see that number because someone will buy it way before... if you said $5 bucks thats more reasonable...
15% of 500mil = 75mil, which is roughly 3 dollars per share, tack on a really conservative 10x multiple, and you get 30 dollars.
Even if we assume first year US sales are only 100mil, which, as a uracyst user, I think is underestimated, twelve percent goes to stellar, roughly a little under $.50 EPS, slap on a conservative 20 multiple because of the growth potential, and you get about $10 a share. That is worst case
When I was posting about VHC's value and ultimate direction (when VHC was at $2 and $3), I received similar negative commentary and criticism. VirnetX now sits at $17+ and has been as high as $20. And, VHC isn't done by a long shot.
As for Stellar, do your own DD. I've done mine and am satisfied with my facts, analysis, projections, and investment. You certainly need not accept my views and opinions; instead, make the effort to undertake your own analysis and formulate your own opinions.
Me? I stand by mine.
make up your mind... one day its WPI will buy them out.. global market is 500 million now you say 15-20.. .do the math at 15 thats 375 million at 20 its 500 mill for a company who at best will see 15 percent of your totally bloated estimates...
SLXCF's pps should and will increase as Uracyst sales in international markets continue to gain traction and acceptance and as WPI pursues the Phase III "Pivotal Study" vis-a-vis obtaining FDA approval for sales in the U.S. In my view, if plans progress as is expected and if Uracyst continues to grow into becoming "the" treatment for IC, then WPI (or some other major Pharma) likely will swoop in long before the "final" word from the FDA. This is particularly true where SLXCF (with WPI taking the lead) is pursuing FDA regulatory approval for Uracyst as a "device" as opposed to a new drug application. Importantly, the skids have been greased for FDA approval inasmuch as Stellar has already received a "CE Mark" to sell Uracyst as a "device" in the EU and continues working with local distributors and licensors to gain regulatory approval in other international markets. And again, SLXCF already has regulatory approval and is selling the product in Canada.
Valuation: I believe SLXCF will eventually obtain full value, at or near the time of FDA approval, in the range of $15 to $20.
The reason I continue to accumulate is because, in my analysis, SLXCF is currently very much undervalued and, based upon its present status, earnings, ramping revenues, financial condition, and existing distribution agreements, etc., I believe fair value for Stellar (at this very moment) is in the range of $6 to $7.
As you noted, current therapies for IC/PBS are perceived as "hit or miss" remedies, and there is a large market for a IC/PBS that has proven efficacy. The majority of IC patients are women and it is estimated that there are a potential 3.2 million to as many as 6.9 million female patients in the United States alone, 4.2 million female patients in Europe and even larger numbers in the remaining international markets. The size of the market may turn out to be even bigger should Uracyst prove effective for other forms of GAG deficient cystitis such as benign prostatitis, chronic UTI's, OAB, radiation induced cystitis, etc. and if the compound is shown to work in men as well as in women.
To date, Stellar has completed three (3) early stage/Phase II clinical trials. The results of the first two trials demonstrated that Uracyst has a high safety profile. The results of the latest Phase II study should be evaluated by Watson and disclosed to the public within the next 4-6 weeks. And, other studies completed by Watson are showing Uracyst to be a potentially effective treatment for other forms of cystits, which I believe will prove to be very, very important.
Here are two studies I found on pubmed:
1. The following paper was published in the Journal of Urology. The study was based on an animal model that points to a therapeutic method of action for Uracyst (e.g. chondroitin sulfate):
2. The second paper was published in the British Journal of Urology Itl. The study was done in human's and had favorable results; however, it was not "blinded" nor did it have have a "control arm"; therefore, the findings (while interesting) must be viewed as anecdotal:
Other studies can be found on pubmed/medline by searching for "chondroitin sulfate".
You will note that the second study states: "Chondroitin sulphate instillation was effective and well tolerated in the therapy of chronic forms of cystitis associated with a possible GAG layer deficit (GAG layer: mainly composed of the glycosaminoglycans chondroitin sulphate, dermatan sulphate and heparan sulphate), but the results need to be confirmed in a controlled study." The controlled study is what Stellar is currently undertaking in co-operation with Watson. My understanding is that they recently completed a Phase II study and plan to embark upon a larger Phase III study which will provide the "Pivotal Data" that Stock77 alludes to in his other posts.
Kbaby1 - I will hazard a guess if you ask your urologists - "what do you think of Uracyst?", they will likely respond with "show me the Pivotal Data". Responding as "clinical practitioners", this would be an entirely appropriate response. While Uracyst is approved for sale in a number of countries (including the EU), I believe it will need to show favorable data, under a controlled clinical protocol, to ramp up huge revenue numbers that have caught all our attention and drew some debate on the board.
But I think there are value creation points prior to Stellar putting big revenue numbers up on the board. I will post my thoughts in a separate thread titled "My Near Term Investment Thesis for Uracyst"
One very important statement you presented, that should be more carefully analyzed is: "Chondroitin sulphate instillation was effective and well tolerated in the therapy of chronic forms of cystitis ...."
Translation: What is not fully appreciated or understood yet is that Uracyst (and its principal ingredient) has been found to be very effective not just for "interstitial cystitis", which treatment is what is being sought vis-a-vis FDA approval, but that Uracyst is also being found to be a very effective treatment for other forms of cystitis. You can be certain that Watson fully appreciates this fact and likewise understands that the available market/revenues/profits for Uracyst is far broader than for just the treatment of Interstitial Cystitis.
This fact is very important and will make Uracyst and the method/device for administering Uracyst will ultimately be expanded and Watson is very likely to end up seeking FDA approval for Uracyst for other types of cystitis - - - thus making Uracyst and, therefore, Stellar all the more valuable.