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Apollo Global Management, LLC Message Board

  • stage3time stage3time Mar 17, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    Isn't the correct time to unload when the insiders all sell?

    That is essentially what I am reading here. The insiders are unloading. Same now with FIG. It has been a decent run for me but someone please tell me why I should continue to hold here? Leon Black himself said it is time to sell everything. OK, then why not his APO shares? Read below.

    It's almost biblical. There is a time to reap and there's a time to sow," Leon Black, chairman and chief executive of Apollo Global Management (ticker: APO) declared to the Milken Institute's global conference in Los Angeles, alluding to that same Scriptural passage. "We are harvesting," he added pointedly.

    That is, the private-equity giant is a net seller because things simply can't get much better. "We think it's a fabulous environment to be selling," he says, noting Apollo has sold about $13 billion in assets in the past 15 months. "We're selling everything that's not nailed down. And if we're not selling, we're refinancing."

    That's because there has never been such a good time to borrow -- which is raising warning flags for Black. "The financing market is as good as we have ever seen it. It's back to 2007 levels. There is no institutional memory," he observed, referring to the peak of the last credit bubble. That was when then-Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince famously said that as long as the music was playing, bankers had to keep dancing -- which they did, with disastrous consequences when the band stopped.

    Sentiment: Hold

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      All you have to do is look at Yahoo insider here and you see lists of 10s of millions of $ of insider selling.

      I am very holding very cautiously, feel deep inside something is wrong......

      • 1 Reply to stage3time
      • Thank you for your link, but in my opinion you are overreacting. The sale of insiders' shares was mentioned as an afterthought to the sales of FIG shares: "Apollo co-founders Joshua Harris and Marc Rowan sold some of their company shares last year." Insiders may sell shares for any number of reasons. But if they sold last year based on inside information, they most likely missed a considerable appreciation in the price of those shares. My guess would be that they sold a small percentage of their shares for personal reasons such as possibly buying another house. For what it's worth, if you really feel deep inside that something is wrong, you should probably sell. It's been my experience that if you are uncomfortable holding ANY investment, you are probably better off without it. You are the only one who can answer that. It's a mistake to rely on a Message Board to tell you why you should continue to hold here.

    • stage3time, I just went back and re-read your article. I must have missed it before, but can you point out ANY mention in the article of "insiders unloading"?

    • You may have a point, but I'm inclined to disagree. For one thing, selling off assets at the right time raises a lot of cash to be invested in other areas, as well as to continue those generous quarterly payments to shareholders. If Leon Black believes that now is the right time to sell, who are we to argue? It's better to sell a little early as opposed to selling too late. Not to mention the fact that these deals don't take place overnight. Personally I have an awful lot of faith in this management team based on past accomplishments and until I see otherwise, I'm going to stick with them..

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