Hi, CD, saw PACT earlier as #1 on the list of gainers today and remembered of your recommendation yesterday. You had amazing timing....from what I could gather their run today was based on news with a deal from SONY that was announced in the afternoon.
Good luck with this and other stocks. I have been buying mainly CKCM, PRFT, PFSW and some NANO and FARO.
I am still checking on last year's high-flyers like TENF and XING for signs of life!
<<Perseverance is one of RTB's strong points. But, that doesn't change the fact that they keep making mistakes that are preventable.>>
Vision, perseverance, and execution are the key ingrediants for success in business. FSTW has the first two ingredients in abundance but needs to prove that it can execute.
At least now they are focussing their efforts in one niche instead of dispersing them across the entire CRM spectrum. Let's see if they can make some things break their way now that they have found their nice and the economy is finally picking up after a 4.5 year IT spending slump.
Geez, hawk -- I just re-read your post.
You said "Excellent earnings forecast presented to all of you by Ted the basher"
Why, that almost sounded like a compliment.
You feeling OK this morning?
Too bad you had to end it with the basher comment.
You know, if I really wanted to come on here and bash FSTW, I could do a bang-up job of it. They provide plenty of opportunity.
I post the results of research I do, and provide my opinion on what it means. That opinion is based on a career of software company experience. I also have knowledge of FSTW's tendencies, as a result of studying the company for several years. The combination of those two knowledge bases gives me a pretty good chance of understanding how FSTW is likely to perform as a business.
You can call it bashing if you like. I call it reality.
BTW, even though RTB didn't say much in the CC, he provided several clues about Q4. You might want to listen carefully to what he said, and more importantly, think about what he didn't say.
re: Improved results compared to Q3/03
Right. 44 cent loss in 02, 29 in 03
Now, if the company hadn't completely changed their operation since 03, comparing the two quarters might actually mean something. They have a new focus on Sports, you know.
re: Q4/04 will be decisive
Decisive? What the heck does that mean? Is Q4 going to be your decision point? Are you going to decide to quit saying "Strong Buy" if they don't have a barn-burner quarter?
re: Sarbanes-Oxley makes it virtually impossible to make any definitive statement about your business
Yeah, but we're talking about RTB here. He's been in the "soft-pedal wrongs" and "over emphasize positives" mode ever since I've been investing in this stock. It just took me a few years to recognize it. Since then, I've been able to fairly accurately forecast FSTW's business.
There are ways to make positive statements, yet couch them with sufficient disclaimers that alert investors to potential risks. That's what the "Safe Harbor" provision is all about. But, a blanket "Safe Harbor" is too vague to give investors the ability to discern whether to invest. IMO, when goodness of a particular revenue possibility is predicted, the potential downside should be described right there with it.
The closest I ever heard RTB come to delivering anything like that was when he talked about the 750,000 tickets that would be sold at Championsworld. He said "but we won't get to sell all of them", or something to that effect. So, a reasonable investor would come away from that thinking FSTW might get 50% or more. People like to think positive, so some probably thought 75%. Assuming 2 bux a ticket, that would be $1.125Mil in ticket fees. That's enough to get ANYBODY's attention.
As it turned out, there were only about 450,000 tickets sold, and I'd be surprised if FSTW sold 10,000 of them.
That result could have been predicted (like I did) if they had done their homework.
IMO, there is far too much "on the job training" and "learn by mistakes" happening with this company. That's expensive, thus detrimental to shareholders.
Bucky: re: I don't think it is in him to give up
Probably not. Perseverance is one of RTB's strong points.
But, that doesn't change the fact that they keep making mistakes that are preventable.
They should work smarter, not harder.