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TPC Group Inc Message Board

  • bobbobwhite bobbobwhite Sep 22, 2011 1:29 PM Flag

    Stocks that bear close watching

    when the upturn finally happens:


    Great prospects, great earnings.

    All they need is a level playing field. (Some days I fear that is gone forever.)

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    • Cannot comment on the others you have listed, but I have VERY high hopes for TPCG longer term - although the share price could continue to remain under pressure near-term as the market sells off without discrimination.

      This company has very excellent prospects for growth and I simply believe it is misunderstood by the markets as it gets lumped in with everything else "cyclical". There are a lot of longer-term trends working in favor for this company with very favorable supply/demand dynamics in its end markets that should persist over time. I would actually consider this a more defensive play than cyclical. I would look to 1Q2012 as a potential catalyst in what I believe to be a high likelihood that the company forges ahead with their second dehydro project (which the company did not state on its last conference call that an analyst's estimate was off the mark of it being worth an additional $600mn in EBITDA based off of current prices!). You do the math, but if management's FY2012 EBITDA expectations (which in all likelihood could come in closer to $200mn) hold and if this second project is really worth even $200-$300mn in EBITDA under a more conservative scenario, this stock is trading absurdly cheap right now.....

      Mr Market will always be emotional (not that slowing global growth/another financial crisis isn't something to be worried about), but if you believe in buying good businesses at good prices for the long-term and that in the end business fundamentals will prevail, I could not think of many better risk/reward scenarios than TPCG in this space currently.

      • 1 Reply to no_logic1986
      • Right. As TPCG is now off an incredible 54% from its recent high, I cannot imagine a better buy when this nutso market settles down. Of course, that is hoping that it will settle and that it is not nutso forever due to the cumulative effects of the last few years of political/Wall Street manipulation for corrupt, greedy and selfish purposes.