NPV analysis based on:
Launch in 2015, 2nd line refactory CLL/ SLL. peak sales reached after 4 years. 1st line possibily 3 years after 2nd line. Percentage of technical success for Phase3 at 75% (very generous given the saftey profile). R&D for BTK cost $50M annual including manufacturing scale up and validation batches, until 1st line is achieved, 5% gross margin. To which you have to add on going other development programs. Price at launch $100K gross, $90K net, treatment duration 4 to 6 months. Discount rate of 10%. Sales and marketing cost pre-launch $25M, $60M at launch and grew by 10 to 20% annual to peak sales of 2nd line. Layer in some G&A. Peak sales of $800 to $1B.
Have you not seen the clinical trials results? NAme another drug with the combination of efficacy and safety in the cancer space? Breakthrough Status is the FDA acknowledgment that this is seriously good stuff.