VRTX will be acquired in 2004 and SOONER than later.
I am betting that SGP will beat Roche to this punch.
Actually, SGP has no choice in this case if it wants to regain its dominance in the HCV market.
And certainly, if SGP decides to wait till after the results of the PIVOTAL TRIAL of Merimepodib, not only will it have to pay a MUCH HIGHER PRICE but it also takes the risk that another company will make a move for VRTX. For these reasons, SGP will be FORCED TO ACT QUICKLY in this case.
Any way one analyzes the VRTX situation, the fact that Merimepodib achieved a virologic response in 86% of HCV patients who were NON-RESPONSIVE TO IFN + Ribavirin therapy, makes VRTX extremely attractive to companies with a large market share in the HCV market (e.g., SGP, Roche, etc.). For the company that acquires VRTX will clearly gain a tremendous advantage over its competition in this $2.5 billion market. Also, the high efficacy of Merimepodib (in combination with PEG-IFN and Ribavirin) will certainly increase, by at least 50%, the number of patients taking a full-duration treatment of PEG-IFN and Ribavirin.
Keep in mind the 24-week results of Merimepodib were achieved in patients who ALL had HCV genotype 1 -- the most difficult to achieve a virologic response in and the most common genotype in the US.
Think about it. But DON'T BE FOOLED by disinformation posted on this board.
<<VRTX will be acquired in 2004 and SOONER than later>>
I believe you or somewone else also said in a previous posts that there will be a friendly takeover.
I will not count on a friendly takeover. Any body who has watched Boger's actions since he was at Merck and knows why he left and has watched him mange VRTX knows that he has a very BIG ego--one of the reasons he blew millions of our shareholder dollars on Aurora and other stupid companies as well as getting into big unneeded lease agreements that we lost I believe $50+ mil on. This big ego would not allow him to sell the company since he won't be the number one in the company any more. Regardless of how much they offer for VRTX I do not believe he will sell.
Now as far as an unfriendly takeover is concerned, he has made sure there is a big poison pill in place. The question is, is there a big pharma willing to get involved in fighting the poison pill in courts. I do not have the answer to that!
You guys and your SGP predictions. Unless you have some serious inside information to spill here on this board, it is merely SPECULATION on your part. Just because SGP has a strong interest in the HCV market doesn't make them the future owner of VRTX.
Remember the AMGEN rumors earlier this year?? Here's a reminder:
IMHO, there aren't many (if any) companies interested in buying out VRTX with its most promising candidates in preclinical (VX-950) and phase IIa (VX-497). Calling the latter phase IIa is very liberal by the way. It's very low patient population is questionable. If you had 1 - 1.5 Billion dollars to spend, would you spend it on a preclinical compound and another that has shown excellent results on 6 of 7 patients??
P.S. I'm long on VRTX - as I have been for awhile now. I'm just not falling for silly rumors. Back it up with solid information please.