All or nothing may not work. I will follow VRTX and if it breaks out I will enter again - albeit at a higher price.
I do agree money management is the key to success. ________________________________________________________________
<You must be a chart guy. Explain something to me ok? Chart guys say don't buy till a stock breaks above a target. If you buy before the target, and the stocks goes up, don't you make more? Gary B Smith on the bulls and bears does that. I can't understand it> _______________________________________________________________
I am waiting for MLNM to break past $10 - may have bought too early predicting the run past $10. This may be a bad buy, I'll see soon. Buying before the breakout doesn't always work and money is tied up in a stagnant play.
So, that's why I will wait for VRTX to dip around mid-$15 or rise to mid-$17. VRTX may trade b/w $15.50 and $17 until the end of the year.
Even with TA, it is difficult to time the market. All I can do is manage capital. If I am lucky to have bought a stock like VRTX, that takes off beyond a certain valuation, I may take some of the money off the table. A all or none strategy seldom works.
With biotech I got CVTX, AGIX and VRTX. Among these, CVTX is the closest to approval and I think the market underestimates the potential. Regardless if there is spike after approval, I will be tempted to take some from the table... not all. Next is AGIX, which is a one trick pony... I will have to reduce my position on any rise prior to ARISE in order to reduce my risk.
VRTX trials may be shorter than for the heart drugs. Phase 2 will test drug dosages and confirm safety and even give some efficacy data. Virus dynamics tell me that if the drug kills a higher % of viruses than SOC, it should be more efficient at least initally. Reoccurence and and resistance are always an issue... that is why multiple drugs are used and the current SOC will be around. So to me it appears that the safety issue will the main issue.
I would think that the trials are usually short for this kind of disease and drug. As most of you know HepC is deadly. SOC is may be effective in 60% of the cases, so FDA may approve this drug in combo for the failed cases. Still plenty of $moolah.
Hx indicated that a stock that is well followed like VRTX will spike big once the HepC drug is approved. We should be able to do an analysis and figure out what the valuation is... and more likely it will go beyond that. No point getting greedy.
Speaking of greedy, I had bought uh more than a few thousand shares of pre-split $40/s QCOM back in Oct 98 at around $2.50/s ( 16 for 1 slits since then). Rode this bad boy all the way to $108 and then back down to $10!!! Added a few shares and sold recently. I do not need the chest pains, cold sweats again.
I do not want to cash out early, but with stocks like these I must have an exit plan.
You must be a chart guy. Explain something to me ok? Chart guys say don't buy till a stock breaks above a target. If you buy before the target, and the stocks goes up, don't you make more? Gary B Smith on the bulls and bears does that. I can't understand it