Thanks for the informative post on RA comparisons. I think the 12 week trial is too early to draw conclusions from. MUCH too early. The Placebo effect is almost comical. Someone should market placebos for all diseases.
The market will punish the stock, justly or not, but one can use this as a buying or trading opportunity. Or one can do nothing and sit it out. I'm inclined towards the later course, adding only on an extreme drop to below 35.
In this 12 month study, VX-702 at 10 mg/d did produce a score of 40% which is the low end range mentioned by Citi to be competitive with injectables anti-TNF. May be the scores will get better with a 6 month study. Adding Methotrexate may produce a synergist effect.
Management may have reasons to be optimistic, but they really need to be conservative in their previous assessment. Their exhuberance, in my opinion, did cause the stock to jump from 34 to 44. Now it is ho-hum and let us see where the market takes this stock. After hours sales really have little meaning... poor liquidy and so on.
Let's say this preliminary data is where we end up down the line. i.e. 40% of patients are improved with VX702 and 30% are improved with placebo. It looks like VX702 is mildly effective. The question will be is it effective enough to get FDA approval and can it be competitive in the marketplace. If the after hours trading is any indication, the answer is no. Any rheumatologists or other docs out there wishing to hazard a guess.
From what I gather, and I could be wrong, the higher the placebo score, the higher the 702 score should be. Maybe it wasn't the range, but the difference between them. If that is wrong, that is why they need to address these issues better and inform us.
I would like to know how the analysts interpret that data. I am not strong in that area.
You aren't missing anything. The results are not stellar such as the reuslts for VX-950, but they are good, not just okay. We were spoiled by once in a life time results for VX-950. The results for VX-702 are very, very promising!
Boldasabear, I agree, this crap pss's me off. A drop like that and now news at all. The only thing I found was on the VRTX site under "significant events" a 030606 article of VRTX beating analyst ratings. No real insider selling. Only positive recent articles. Frustrating, eventhough we had a .61 cent rise today.