Similar drugs like Humera, Embrel & Arava are not normally tied to methotrexate. Methotrexate taken by injection makes you tired and somewhat sick the next day - it also can go after the liver. Trials may be for safety issue although the metho is the poison. Valuation is likely more than just how the person feels. You literally loose use of wrists, arms, shoulders, etc. In an emergency you could use the limb but with much pain. Also strength is reduced.
Don't confuse DIFAL for Tech Analysis. He/she was some misguided short basher... paid or otherwise. Nothing she said made sense.
Ewave did point to technical weaknesses in the market... and it did correct. Any short term traders who is on options or margin has to pay attention. Less so for the long term investor.
Just my opinion.
A divergence occurs when the action of an indicator and the action of price no longer match. For example, I will give you an actual market situation:
On 11/25/05, the 5 day RSI peaked at 93.6, with the Dow hitting a peak of 10,955.
On 1/11/06, the 5 day RSI peaked at 83.3, with the Dow peaking at 11047.
The 5 day RSI made a lower high, while the Dow made a higher high. In a strong trend in either direction, both will peak or bottom at the same time and confirm each other. In this case, the momentum shown by the RSI did not match the price action, therefore, it was considered a negative divergence. Soon thereafter, the Dow fell sharply.
This is not to say to expect dramatic moves every time you see this pattern. All it says, is, to be aware for a POTENTIAL change, at least short term. There are situations where you would not look for divergences. Oct. 2002 was one of them. The 5 MONTH RSI was around 11, which has only been there a handful of times in the last 100 years, and maybe because of the time scale, a divergence wasn't needed to indicate a change in trend was coming.
What I would like to see is bottom that is retested while the RSI has a rising bottom... and lower down volume on the 2nd retest. If I was inclined to add I would start here and then on confirmation and break of the bottoming ranges... especially if volume is good.
Till then, might as well let the tourists have their fun.
I am not a big fan of using stoch. Also, keep in mind that it gave a sell signal before during this bull run, and it turned out to be a false signal. I think there are better indicators. Second, the ADX is more negative on the daily than the weekly.
Yes, RSI can remain overbought/oversold for some time, but I don't see your point here. I use RSI techniques that maybe others don't use. In fact, the RSI technique I used got a 65% options profit in VRTX on Wed, the only day the stock was up.
While damage has been done, it is premature to say with certainty that it is permanent.
If you are going to point at longer term charts, this doesn't show up as much yet. It is the daily chart that shows it more.
As far as hourly charts, forget the stoch. Look at the 5 hour RSI which is positively divergent with a positively divergent Bollinger band signal, and positively divergent momentum indicator. Stoch is too, but I don't keep that on my chart template.
People such as these have the Messiah Complex and even believe on their preachings. A little bit megalomaniac with sometimes a bipolar component. A lot of politicians, preachers i history have are in this category. A combo on Lithium + Haldol and Cogentin helps... but now there are newer stuff that has reduced side effects.
I think your analysis is correct for the most part. There could easily be an attempt at a bounce mon, or tues but if you look to the medium and longer term charts the damage appears to just be begining. The stochs crossed over for a sell on the weeklys and the adx is turning down. That is generally a good indication of a trend reversal. also if you look at how fast the stochs reset from oversold on the 30 min and hourly it makes me think any bounce will be short lived. As far as the RSI it can remain oversold/overbought for months and even diverge for days.
It is a very interesting chart. First, there are short term bullish factors. The stock made a new low yesterday, but volume was over 50% lighter, which indicates some seller exhaution. Second, On Thurs. and Wed., the stock gapped down both days, but closed higher than the open, which is either short-covering, or accumulation, or both. The Accumulation/Distribution indicator rose both days. Yesterday, in candlestick charting, it looks like it could be a hammer, which is also near support at its 50 day moving average, which would further support the case for a bounce.
On the negative side, you are right, there are no divergences at daily chart level yet. Momentum is at its lows, and that usually peaks or bottoms before price. The 5 day RSI is at its low of 21, but that is almost extremely oversold, but no divergence yet.
The positive divergences are on the hourly chart for those indicators.
My conclusion is, that I don't think a final bottom has been seen, but it does appear to be a good candidate for a bounce or rally attempt.