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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • kahlog kahlog Apr 5, 2006 2:28 PM Flag

    What bad news???

    An article in says that in the last three weeks Vertex, Human Genome and Idenix have all announced disappointing clinical trial results in their search for a Hep C drug.

    What is this guy talking about? Did I miss bad news from VRTX?

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    • we marked your other posts. Would you like a reminder? Nah, I wouldn't either.

    • is due for a haircut--starting tomorrow--so many sell orders the last few days .... big boys are shorting and you dumbasses are buying --ba ha ha ha -- sub 30 in a week -- mark this post.

    • Thou art wise, Stymie. However, I must take issue on one of your points. They've done studies on this, and it turns out that investors are much worse at dealing with loss than profit. Some quirk of human nature makes people reluctant to take a loss, even when rationally it would be better to accept it and invest the money elsewhere. It certainly has been true at times in my case.

    • I've been working under a general assumption for a while now that the Dow will retest the 11,750 area. That's still over 400 points away but there's nothing firm or magical about 11,750. Who knows, if this run picks up steam we may get closer to that level in the next few days than seems possible right now.

    • Yes, I would say that is quite likely (price-wise). Like I said, I don't know how important a top it will be, it might be a minor turn, but it is a place to start.

    • I think the Dow will see the 11,300s before this run is done but that could happen tomorrow.

    • If you prove to be correct I'll have to hand it to you. Calling a top is difficult. I will say that the action I saw in some stocks today reminded me of March 2000. Some stocks have been on an absolute frenzied run in the last couple of weeks. Seems dangerous in a market that has rallied so far off of the bear market lows and is getting close to some massive resistance levels. The natural resource stocks in particular look like they will never have another down day!

    • I believe some sort of top is due centered on 4/7/06 +/- 2 trading days. I don't know how important a top, time will tell (no pun intended) but there are a confluence of cycles coming due at that time.

      1. Gann cycle shows rising prices into 4/7/06, meaning a high is due around that time (+/- 2 days).

      2. There are a confluence of Bradley dates between 4-3 and 4-11, which the center point is 4-7-06.

      The next 2 are intended to be used together, not independent of one another.

      3. There is a top-top count due centered on 4-8-06 using the key date of 12/20/05. This top needs to be cleaned up with a low-low-high count, as the range on top-top counts is from 102 to 111 days from the key date. It is optimal to have several low-low-high counts to coincide.

      4. Low-low-high: taking the 4-20-05 and 10-13-05 lows, which is 176 days, the corresponding high is due on 4-7-06.

    • when in doubt, stay out. Sometimes for me, I won't do an options trade if I think I won't be able to pay enough attention to it.

    • I did miss the first sentence on VRTX, but I still think they could have quoted a better analyst or a different opinion than that. I am sure many scanned like I did and saw Needham's quote.
      "Despite positive early test results, "novel mechanisms carry not only potential for reward but increased risk of failure," says a recent report by Needham & Co. Still, Needham's analysts acknowledge the upside, saying the compound "has the potential to transform the treatment of hepatitis C, possibly even curing patients of the infection." Analysts at Needham have a hold rating on Vertex; they don't own shares."

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