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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • papaalien2000 papaalien2000 Jun 12, 2006 1:35 PM Flag

    VX-950 + ritonavir

    from pr may 23:

    "The Company also expects to begin a multi-dose, drug-drug interaction study of VX-950 and low-dose ritonavir in the second half of this year."

    since I place quite some hope on this, how about some different comments?

    stymie, what's your assessment?

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    • Windfart said in his delusional stupor that he is long GILD. Some of these delusions are quite elaborate.

    • My 2 cents is that in addition to the 4 year cycle, we will face a season down cycle starting in July/Aug and going all the way down to mid-Oct. When in synch, it is deadly for the markets.

    • very interesting.

    • More likely he is an ex-employee from VRTX that got kicked out for dishonesty... now he is crazy!

    • Windfart just takes some half truths and fabricates the rest of the lies... crazy people are good at that.

    • Thanks, my fear of posting this stuff is being wrong.

      It would be dependent on the charts and indicators.
      It is really hard for me to be bullish right now due to the 4 year cycle. One thing to look for are those that start to hold up better and bottom before the market does. That sort of relative strength analysis often tells you which should outperform during the next bull run. Maybe Bios bottom before the market since they peaked before the market, I don't know. It seems aggressive stocks top before the market, but things seem to bottom in sync.
      I believe the crowd psychology around events determine how those events are reflected in price movements-i.e., good news sometimes leads to a decline, and the opposite occurs as well. I don't think there would be any single "event" to turn a market, unless it is already in a capitulative state.

    • what would make you change your mind on vrtx and btk/spx...would it be price movement or event/s or both?

      Isn't it nice to have people ask for your advice?

      You and stymie should get together and open up your own tech analysis publication.

    • Thank you, it is always nice ot get away, but difficult coming back!
      Looks like I did miss some action, and I haven't had a close look at many things, but here are some rough thoughts:
      1. Dow and S&P with H&S top. Bradley indicator called for an important top in mid May, but the top came in early. Path of least resistance is down.

      2. Nasdaq broke its 200 day MA last month, and after a 3 wave corrective bounce back to it, it failed and has moved lower. The COMPX must be considered bearish and in a longer term downtrend as defined by the 200 day MA.

      3. Gold, Silver, Copper getting crushed with the market, which is as it should be (in this cycle). The positive correlation means that they obviously won't provide a safe haven this time.

      4. I got to talk to some people about real estate stuff when I was away. Homes are not selling well right now, unless people drop their prices. Supply is up a great deal. Articles are now appearing about the rapid increase in foreclosures.

      I still remain bearish, and see lower prices for all of the markets. The problem with the BTK.X is that it in this case has been a leading indicator, by topping first. It also failed a test of the 200 day MA from below.
      VRTX looks like it is moving in concert with the BTK and markets, as its declines have not been accompanied by news. VRTX has not been and will not be immune to market problems. I hope that future damage can be minimized, and Stymie's basing expectations come to fruition.
      It is almost starting to seem undervalued based on its pipeline, however, that means NOTHING unless it has a positive catalyst, and the markets and BTK are not.

      4 year cycle......

    • E
      Welcome back...hope you had a great vacation...when you get a chance wipe off your crystal ball a give us your outlook for vrtx, the overall market and the biotech index.

    • Interesting how the commodities plunged with stocks? I was expecting it, I just wish I had been here to trade it. Best counts so far for 3 Peaks and Domed House say the point 23 top is in. The Head and Shoulders on the Dow is another clue. Fortunately, I talked a couple of friends out of buying gold when it was over 700.

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