I'm all for volatility when needed, but I wish I understood the counter-analysis for positive results in a study for one stock dragging down another.
Seriously, so trial for types 2/3 are going well and that is great. But they are a ways away from FDA filing, even further from FDA approval, even further from reimbursement agreements with companies, even further from actually going on market, and even further from getting doctors to prescribe it.
I mean is there any doubt that Incivek is still well over 50% market into 2014? The FDA doesn't move quickly and there are studies that aren't even complete. This is a long process. I'll take the bird in the hand over 2 in the bush here.
Also, don't doctors like to prescribe the IV because they get paid for the IV administration, whereas an oral from would cut into doctor's wallets. I know we don't like to think this way, but it is an issue.
If your doctor told you you had cancer and a pill is comming in two maybe three years would you wait? Of course not,why are you all thinking that any doctor that has any brains at all would tell his patient (just wait for a pill) nonsence!I don't think any one on this board has any idea how serious this is!This is bad mojo!!!!!It will mess you up!!!!!
I agree, if I'm sick I want to be treated. I don't know the breakdown of geno 1/2/3 but seriously, Hep C is Hep CV, I want it out of my system ASAP not only to keep myself healthy, but also to prevent spreading it (it is spreadable, right?). Even if people were to want to wait, would they want to put those around them in peril of getting it?
I wonder how many of the HCV patients decide to wait three years for a possible newer pill to come to the market, risking hepatoma development. May be a few hedge fund manager and the analyst who prepare their report would. The HCV market is a one time deal, there is no return customer, unlike cystic fibrosis patients, looking at it financially.
Trees make up a forest.
What the analysts don't realize is that there is a strong component of patients who don't know they're infected, and even if they know- they won't seek treatment, or will refuse treatment.
That leaves only the highly motivated GT1 patients for the next 3-5 years. Vertex will grab the lion's share of this chort group.
There won't be too many left for the so called future competiton.
may I say something here.pegasys is precribed by the physician who determines how servere the virus or viral load.(thats why its is so important to go to hospital with "EXPERTS" uknow the one who are writing books, articles,because they sets the dosage which comes to your house already filled!shiped by UPS in a little stria-foam cooler,because it has to stay refrigerated.The doctors calls in script bam its done. You put it in your frig until time for injection, and yes it is a very small needle like insulin.Hope this helps you.
There is no IV here.
Get your facts right. The injection is self administered sc by the patient every week.
Doctors don't make money off HCV patients.
There is no money to be made here by the doctors.
So this is like Insulin for Diabetes. i thought it was more complicated.
Meh, doesn't change my overall thesis, just the last tangential part. Still have no idea what people think The oral companies will deliver between 2011-2014 that VRTX won't but it certainly isn't profits or revenues.