I agree that the VRUS projections of growth in the HCV market are probably way too high but I think there is some truth to the idea that the market may grow significantly. I recall reading that most of the 4 million infected with HCV in the U.S. are unaware they have the virus. Now that effective treatments have reached the market, there will likely be more testing for HCV and the number seeking treatment should increase. Vertex and other HCV drug makers should all benefit from this. Vertex management has said they expect a fragmented HCV market in the next several years and I would assume their goal is to capture as many of these "fragments" as they can--especially the more difficult to treat cases. And with more testing and screening for HCV, all parts of this fragmented market should grow.
[ . I recall reading that most of the 4 million infected with HCV in the U.S. are unaware they have the virus. ]
If the infected are not aware they have been infected , how and who know they are infected ? That does not make any sense. No one is going to see doctor and ask to be examined unless they have syntom of the disease. I wonder if bribery somewhere along the line may not be involved in this buy out decision.
I believe we are going to see screening tests for HCV being recommend not just for high risk individuals, but most of us born between 1946 and 1964 (the baby boom generation -- that happens to have the highest number of HCV cases).