I cannot read the article at Barrons as I do not subscribe. Could please someone explain how Kalydeco, a drug that will be approved to treat about 3,000 CF patients can generate >$ 1 sales?
I really don't get it ... even if the pricing is $200,000/year that will bring max of $600MM/year, assuming 3,000 patients. If the calculations for >$1B assume approval of a corrector, the situation is different, but there is still a long way and a long IF, to assume that vertex will ever get a corrector approved. So far the data on the correctors doesn't suggest sufficient clinical activity to have a medical benefit.
Can anyone explain the numbers/calculations from Geoffrey Porges?
In a few years the sales will expand to treat R117H and other gating mutations. Then, Kalydeco will treat 7% (=3+3+1) of all CFers. An additional 1% will be added to this sum if 2-5 years olds can be treated. This 8% of all CFer in the regions corresponds to about 5000 people.
Soon or later, someone will come up with correctors which will need Kalydeco.