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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

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  • crossroads4040 crossroads4040 Apr 11, 2012 9:41 PM Flag


    I understand that you are arguing, but what is your argument? You're bullish Vertex because " the HCV market isn't really that big after a few years"? I'm uncertain how that helps Vertex. Incivek revenues have stabilized around $1.6b/yr in the US; you state that will be the case for 2 years. What will replace that revenue stream? Kalydeco? I think everyone would agree the revenues are limited without an additional corrector. 809, 661? What probabilities of success do you assign to each and what probability adjusted revenues are you using for each?
    Or does your projected revenue stream come from 509, 765? If so what revenue projections do you have for each. If you've done the analysis I'd love to see it and reconsider my position.

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    • are obviously an aggressive short.

      This is your quote from the past:"Vertex needs to be taken out and shot to put everyone who owns it out of their misery."

      I'm not going to share what I know, however, I do expect some short-term weakness. GILD spent way too much money on VRUS for a share of this market. BMY is going to yank their drug and use their own nuc from INHX. VRTX will have a share with their all oral regimen as well.

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