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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • brokenideas brokenideas Aug 27, 2012 11:31 PM Flag

    Wells Fargo on INX-189 impact on Vertex

    This info is a bit dated (08/01) but in case some find it interesting, the analyst thinks that the failing of INX-189 is most a gain for Gilead but also of possible advantage to Vertex ...


    On 8/1, during the evening, BMY announced that dosing of hepatitis C (HCV) nucleotide BMS-986094 (INX-189, obtained through the INHX acquisition) was voluntarily suspended due to emergence of a serious safety issue. Based on our pharmaceuticals analyst’s discussions with the company, our understanding is that this was a case of heart failure, occurring at the highest 200mg dose, we believe in the GT-2/3 study testing the drug with RBV in an IFN-free regimen. The potential relationship to the drug is unclear (HCV itself can increase the risk of cardiac issues), and BMY is screening all patients for signs of heart failure. We believe this increases the risk for BMY-- who was considered one of the leading competitors in the all-oral HCV race based on the promise of this nuc plus their NS5a inhibitor, daclatasvir; even if ‘189 is ultimately found to be safe, this will likely also prolong BMY’s development timelines. Though there are still multiple potential competitors in the all-oral space, in our view this is a clear positive for GILD--who just outlined their all-oral ph.III strategy—as it could potentially mean one less regimen for ‘7977/’5885 to potentially compete for market share against. We see positive read-throughs as well to VRTX, who just reported positive proof-of-concept data from nuc ALS-2200, as a failure of ‘189 would increase the scarcity value of the nuc class. We see positive implications for ACHN, both through the setback to a competitor as well as the possibility that if ‘189 is ultimately discontinued, BMY could seek other HCV assets to co-develop with their remaining agents such as those in ACHN’s portfolio

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    • Vertex should take off more once investors understand this better. BMS is screwed in Hep C for a while as 1 of their players is dead. The other player is alone without teammates.

      Gilead has an strong set of drugs but even they are not at 100% cure rates and cure rates may vary depending on the genetics of the individual as well as the type of Hep C. There are at least 6 different types of Hep C. Idenix has its 2 drug trial candidates on hold. All of this gives Gilead, Vertex and Achillion more of a lead to get ahead.

      Additionally, the farther the delay in new Hep C treatments, the more Vertex will continue to bring in $300M plus revenues per quarter by FDA approved Incivek.

      After the BMS failure don't know if BMS might be shopping for Achillion but Gilead may be. Gilead is the heavyweight in future Hep C treatment and mainly due to the Pharmasett purchase. If Gilead purchased Achiilion it would only further strengthen Gilead and the overall options for patients for the multiple genetic factors as well as Hep c type factors.

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