A while ago Rojospan thought that the sales could reach 2 billion if the drug is more efficacious and safer than Tamiflu. The figure looks right, but will be volatile. Roche reported that Tamiflu sales figure was 3.2 billion Swiss franc in 2009, but fell to about 1 B SFC in 2010. It is understandable because the sales figure would depend on flu outbreaks. Do you think VX-787 will be better than Tamiflu?
That is a tough one... I have been using a 1 billion figure and it is still up in the air. I think supply and logistics will play a much larger role, so honestly, at the very least, Roche may have the advantage in distribution in Europe.