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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • biotechh biotechh Oct 7, 2012 12:42 PM Flag

    What is the upside if phase 2 data is positive on Thursday?

    SRPT popped 199% last week on good phase 2 data.


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    • I calc it at 5-20% upside on day 1. 62 - 70.
      Normal variables only include the data itself. 5 questions the analyst from Deutsche Bank has asked are the ones that need to be answered.
      Abnormal variable would be VRTX's credibility after botched reporting of trial results last time. This could cap or delay a big bump.

    • Question #2 is the most important imo. If 809 is shown to have across the board efficacy with no major outliers, VRTX goes to new highs on Thursday. I believe that it will, the data appears to be that good.

    • Are your referring to Ph II 809/770 trial data? It depends on what you mean by [positive]. Vertex has already reported an early data in May, revised the data late May, and what it called the final results in late June. In what Vertex called the final data, they disclosed the quantitative changes in FEV1 and sweat chloride, resulting from 600mg VX-806 dosing and placebo only, but they did not give quantitative data resulting in the arms receiving 400mg and 200mg of 809.

      It is very important to see the time course over 8 weeks for % FEV1 occurred in 400mg and 200mg dosing arms. I'll tell you why in detail after the data are out. But I'll tell you that the data can explain the time course of funny behavior of the FEV1 for the control group (=placebo receiving).

      If the press release includes the reason why FEV1 decreased so much for the control arm over a mere 8 wk period, and it has the origin in the stopping of antibiotics for all arms, then the share price will see a new high.

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