Very competitive field and I am not sure that it will generate 30 billion dollar market. GILD and ABT will face the same issue like MRK and VRTX due to Hep C patients entering into drug trial and getting the oral therapy for free.
I don't know at what viral load patients stop transmitting Hep C virus, if they do? I don't see any drug company working on Hep C prophylaxsis at present time.
I am hoping VX 222 will reproduce 85% or better SVR 12 with Telaprevir and Ribavirin and I hope to see VRTX advancing this twice daily regimen into phase III as rapidly, as they could ( SVR 12 is 99 % representation of SVR 24). I hope Virochem 350 million buyout will bring some reward back.With Affordable healthcare act, I see significant value in relatively low cost therapy even if it is not a single pill or a once daily dose.
Even if the drug only work for non cirrhotic treatment naive group, it is worth a shot. Only 10% patient are treatment resistant and VRTX can leave GILD and ABT to have that market share with their 11 billion ( plus additional development cost) market drug investments.