The TA on this is very bearish - and was confirmed today - tomorrow this is going to drop like a stone. While I only see this as a buying opportunity - but I don't believe we are anywhere near bottom here... say high 20's.
It did not "drop like a stone" as someone suggested yesterday. Good luck with your short position. You should make money anyway you can and, if TA works for you, then make yourself rich. However, remember that your losses are limited with long positions but with short positions your losses can be limitless. As for the direction of Vertex's stock, I believe the next 15 to 20 points are more likely to be up than down. Vertex has lost more than $5 billion in market cap since its high in May, 2012. It has lost almost $4 billion in market cap since the CF conference at the beginning of October, 2012. And it has lost more than $2 billion in market cap since November 2, 2012. The current market cap of about $8.6 billion is pricing in or "discounting" some extremely bad news that may not actually occur. The assumptions seem to be 1) Incivek revenue will continue to fall sharply and be completely gone in the next 12 to 18 months. 2) Vertex pipeline of hep C drugs, including VX-135 will fail. 3) Kalydeco has nearly reached its peak revenues because it is going to be tough to get any money out of the europeans for this new therapy. 4) Expanding the label for Kalydeco beyond 4% of the CF population will fail. 5) VX-809/Kalydeco in homozygous F508del does not work (the conclusion of Goldman Sachs' Terrence Flynn) and all of the statistically significant results thus far have been an aberration. 6) VX-661/Kalydeco must also be failing because they refuse to divulge interim results. 7) VX-787 for influenza will fail. 8) VX-509 for rheumatoid arthritis and other autoimmune diseases will fail. 8) And finally, Vertex will lose so much money in 2013 that it will burn through its $1.3 billion cash and need to raise capital. Sometimes investors get too pessimistic and I think that is what is happening now with Vertex.