The Q4 earnings report comes out January 28th. It is very likely to show a contraction of both sales and earnings from the same period a year ago.
Having said that, what catalysts remain between now and then which could drive the stock price higher or lower? Are any interim study results being published? Are there any investor or medical conferences scheduled where Vertex will be presenting?
What are the reasons why folks are holding this equity?
It seems that investors have forgotten the potential of the Phase 3 CF program that will be initated early next year with 809/770 that will dramatically expand the potential treatable cf population.VX 661 Phase 2A results will represent further hope to treat the 508del
CF patients. And of course the label to treat patients with Kalydeco monotherapy will be expanded to include 10 to 15% of the CF population next year. The efficacy of the influenza drug will be revealed soon, just as flu season is getting underway, (projected to be a severe one) rasing interest in a drug that will have clear advantages over the current standard Tamiflu if proof of concept trial is positive. And of course VX 135 Phase @ trials will be initiated, to keep VRTX in the second generation hep C treatment race evolving. Lastly VX 509 has tremendous potential in multiple autoimmune diseases which will be tested in trials starting next year, in addition to getting the Phase 2B results in the trial currently underway testing this drug in RA. Even if the company reports a small loss next year from dropping rates of treatment with Incivek next year, the company will have more than sufficient funding to get it's pipleine advanced with the potential for huoe growth in revenue in the coming years.
"The efficacy of the influenza drug will be revealed soon, just as flu season is getting underway, (projected to be a severe one) rasing interest in a drug that will have clear advantages over the current standard Tamiflu if proof of concept trial is positive."
Can anyone give more details about the above. In what sense would it will have a "clear advantage"?
Also, does it have to be modified every year to include the annual new mutated virus?
Does VRTX have to produce the vaccine and if there is no pandemic flu does the government pay VRTX for the unused vaccines or does VRTX have to write off the excess vaccines at the end of the flu season?
Does the US government help pay for the vaccine or VRTX has to charge users for its use.
If the vaccine is going to be much better than the present one, can vrtx realistically charge a lot more than the present charges? Will insurance companies pay for it?
MY concern about spending all of that money to develop a vaccine that may be better than the present one is that it may be a good humanitarian gesture on VRTX part but not great for VRTX shareholders pocket book. Hopefully, there are good FINANCIAL reasons for pursuing the flu vaccine, but I do not know what they are and like to be educated about it.
I am just raising these questions to hopefully start a dialog about the vaccine. Remember VRTX management, especially its scientific as well as its medical directors, were asleep on the job by not realizing the value of Nucs and letting the competition get ahead.