Conservative Revenue Estimates from Kalydeco sales, 2012 - 2017
It is about the time to update the potentially explosive growth of the revenue from Kalydeco sales in the years ahead.
It is possible to estimate the sales of Kalydeco because one knows the numbers of CFers who can benefit from the drug and also know the price, discounts, and royalty and tax payments. Below, I used published data for Kalydeco revenue for this year and a price tag of 200K for 1 year treatment to estimate the future US and EU revenues. The label expansion to R117H would be a slam-dunk and would occur in 2013-14. I assumed only 2/3 of CFers of this mutation would take the drug in 2014.
Year 2015 would be a remarkable year because not only children of age 2-5 years old and other-than-551 gating mutations will benefit from the drug, but also VX-809/770 combination will be sold following an FDA approval in 2014. After having thoroughly reviewed the data given at the NACFC meeting in October, I am confident that the combination is viable until VX-661 is approved for marketing in 2016-7. However, I gave two sets of estimates for Year 2015 one with and the other without 809/770 success. Observe that the EU sales estimate lags the US sales by about a year. One may not attach much numerical value to VX-809 alone, and I neglected it (I assumed that 508 CFers pay 200K a year for Kalydeco alone and get 809 free.). For Year 2017, VX-661 will be marketed for both homozygous and heterozygous 508 mutations -- because of its better efficacy I assumed a 661 revenue of 50 K per person per year and only 80% of 508 CFers take the drug in 2017.