There is always a 'cure' for cancer with a lot of hype and I was expecting more disclosure at ASCO. I originally invested on the prospect of the psoriasis research, and its competitive risk to Celgene (CELG)... hence a buyout target somewhere in the range of $40 to $50. Originally the prospect of Keventrin was just a side note to my interest and not the basis for investing.
When I was looking at cancer drugs I considered a multitude of companies and have invested in SGEN, GSK, CTIX, and ONTY.
I don't believe that Keventrin is the 'cure' for cancer, but I do believe it could potentially become a staple part of oncology treatments which could still include chemo or targeted antibodies. This is based on data to date, however, higher dose data may show more aggressive and effective responses.
What is that worth potentially? There has been reports that state that the cure for cancer is worth a trillion dollars. I find that hard to stomach. In the real world, I think a broadly applicable complement to cancer treatment could be worth north of 20 to 30 billion. So with respect to CTIX, this is $300 per share. I don't know that will ever happen, I think that a buyout in the range of $50 to $100 if successful is likely (5 to 10 billion respectively).
Assuming Purisol is successful and also worth 5 to 10 billion, these price ranges seem reasonable in light of Amgen's recent offer to by Onyx for 10 billion... I consider CTIX to be potentially more valuable than Onyx.
At this point, we all just have to wait for the data. So my opinion is don't risk what you don't want to lose. And if you are willing to lose it, the potential reward justifies just sitting on it and not being swayed by the vicissitudes of the market.
Having a friend that recently died from cancer, I hope that we do make some progress in this area soon.