Studies at the 100mg dose are proceeding and there is some degree of probability that the lower dose will be successful. Yet, I see statements on this board that VX-135 is dead. What if the 100 mg dose is effective? Wouldn't that represent considerable value? Anything can happen, of course.
I agree with Bootpart. VX-135 is very much alive. Even at 400 mg daily dosing along with Riba, elevated liver enzymes were seen only among patients who were exposed to high levels of the drug and its metabolites. Some people absorb and retain more than others. Light body weight can contributes to the high exposure.
A crude estimate gives me if VX-135 and Daclatasvir combo is safe, it is worth $20-30 per share.
It is still viable and has the potential to be a key part of a cocktail to cure HepC. It's hard to put a "value" on it at this point. Incivek costs (I think) about $45k for a treatment.....it's a good question....how much will Vertex get per patient for a treatment that includes 135?
I think that both the 100 and 200mg doses are ok and there is a good chance that the FDA will lift the 200mg hold based on there being no issues with it so far....they overreacted to the liver issues at the 400mg dose.
Knowing that Gilead paid 11 b for PSI-7997 is key here. I think that the value will be less, and strategically less so that Vertex can gain market share and cause balance sheet loss to their competitor. With Gilead as large and diversified as it is, I don't know how that shakes out for Gilead. I can say with reserve though that I think Third is right on his valuation. There was a time when I was double that... not so confident on that now because of the competitive landscape.