This is not likely to be news related. If it was, they wouldn't trigger a bear raid, they would try to sell at as high an average as possible.
Bear raids are generally an optimistic sign for a biotech stock nearing news, because they are used to cover short positions and/or increase your long position.
However, this company is very unlikely to get Zohydro approved, and so that is why we see a complete lack of recovery. Another factor in the lack of recovery is the fact that it only dropped 15%, if it had hit -20%, or -30%, the bouncers such as myself, understanding that it was a bear raid, would have jumped in for the bounce play.
Because pending news date is unknown, many longs have interpreted the drop as a sign of a leak. It's not, it's simply a bear raid, but instead of selling at a larger loss when they announce probable rejection, they're selling now thinking bad news is coming. Well, bad news is probably coming, but this isn't a sign of it. Penny stock pumpers have been playing this stock for awhile, and I bet they tried to create a -30% bear raid so that they could make money on the bounce. It failed.
I do agree with some of your points. But I think the lack of recovery is due to the fact that nobody has any idea about the upcoming FDA decision. So, most just don't want to risk more than what they already had in their portfolio,