I spoke a while back of a challenge with BD and other players in bidding fights for Lympro. One has to know that the geriatric market for Lympro is heavily reliant on governmental reimbursement. I discussed this last year and early this year. BD is not always government friendly, they like high margins and risk getting denial of reimbursment and forcing private pay, much like Lympro's counter seeking EMEA approval. Word is out of these fights internally to price the product correctly to the market. Uplisting will come by reverse split after Lympro deal is done, guessing a 6:1 to meet $3pps. Gerald has weeks to finalize or jeopardizes time to market, a serious implication if they don't go it alone. Companies need time to market the product in order to meet EPS guidance to justify the BOD approval for bid on such product. This all means a lot when the BD BOD doesn't want to pay what AMBS wants. There's no doubt BD has first right of refusal due to relationship at this point, but know that the more hands that get in and bid and back down, all start buying into the mcap projection with care in the scientific world. Much like large banks price-fix retail or other industry stocks, the pharma industry does much of the same. This is why it's consistently moving up slowly each day. The word is the 20th was the last key meeting and it's highly suspected that a deal will be announced within the next two weeks. This can place the immediate valuation at well over a 400-500m mcap in days once the news breaks based on what I figure Lympro is going for with cash up front and royalties. Best to all and you haven't seen anything yet in my opinion. Congrats to longs for your faith in the science.
Watson, thanks so much for your insight. You mentioned 'based on what I figure Lympro is going for with cash up front and royalties'. What do you think Lympro will go for in terms of an upfront cash payment? I believe part of the hold up could be due to the desire of the potential partner (BD) to negotiate for the Lympro Diagnostic Platform and not just Alzheimers. I am not really even sure about all of the tests possible here, but CTE has been suggested as a possibility. I know there are many other possibilities that BD could potentially foot the bill for product development. (parkinsons, ALS, breast cancer, T1D?, etc.) I guess the size of the the upfront cash payment would depend if the deal is for Lympro Alzheimers or the Lympro Platform in it's entirety.
I think it would really irk BD to high heavens to know AMBS could partner the use of BD antibodies for the LymPro test to another company and have that other company reap all of the benefits... I don't think BD will be too thrilled with that at all.
posgost67, I agree with you, my assertions may not meet my desires in all cases. I am stating what I hear or what I see. One can make arguments about leaving BD in the dust all day, but Amarantus has a lot of shareholders to please and has made some very unique moves in recent '13 to secure far more stable and individual footing. They have either made many cocky moves this year, or they are using leverage to prep for the worst. It's a frugal world and BD has bills to pay just the same. I still believe in my heart that this will be the final resting place, with BD. I have a feeling that license rights will stay within the US borders if they do strike a deal so they can leverage other partners in other countries to maximize profits. They have a calculated and shrewd group of advisors and executive team that have dealt with larger incubator projects from start to market. Will be an interesting few weeks to come. Happy New Year!
Thanks Waston. I have been patiently waiting for this stock to regain what was lost last year. Your insight and indepth analysis help me appreciate the gem of a stock I'm holding. Yet, seeing my nearly 300% gain evaporated since Jan. 05, 2013 over the summer. I was not please but added to my position during this time frame. I believe this stock has a lot more to run in Q1 2014, but I don't want to repeat 2013 again. Do you really this is the real deal this time around?