significant catalyst coming up in its LymPro Alzheimer's Disease diagnostic test. LymPro is due for pilot clinical performance data next quarter (Q1)
from "3 Approaches To Retinitis Pigmentosa" article from Seeking Alpha
Anything above 90% is good.
With thorough testing and a "process of elimination," doctors today can diagnose probable Alzheimer’s disease with almost 90% accuracy. Alzheimer’s disease cannot be definitely diagnosed until after death, when the brain can be closely examined for certain microscopic changes caused by the disease.
For a test like Lympro, the most important prognostic factor is the negative predictive value: the chance that a negative test means that a person does NOT have Alzheimer's. if that is close to 100%, that matters the most, because it will put people's minds at ease, that are being tested for possible Alzheimer's. If you can essentially rule out Alzheimer's with a blood test, and prevent thousands of dollars of more invasive/expensive testing, that would make the test extremely useful. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value aren't as important. If someone has a positive test you can bet your #$%$ they will get more testing. Positive predictive value is the chance a positive test means you have Alzheimer's. although that is important, people will get further testing regardless f the test is positive or borderline
Angelina Jolie had both breasts removed after a genetic test suggested an 85% chance of one day developing breast cancer. I thought that that move was a little drastic. I don't know. How can we know if LymPro stats will satisfy FDA? I hope so.
Posgost, Lympro's positive and negative predictions are both around 92% accurate.
Also, and I am sorry to put this bluntly, but "The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value aren't as important" is absolute NONSENSE. Did you just that? And I thought you have a science background? Please do some research before typing.
Sensitivity (positive rate) measures the proportion of actual positives which are correctly identified (e.g. the percentage of sick people who are correctly identified as having the condition). Specificity (negative rate) measures the proportion of negatives which are correctly identified (e.g. the percentage of healthy people who are correctly identified as not having the condition).
And yes, spec/sens are both equally and very very very critical numbers for any diagnostic. They better be 98%+. Even that is not good enough. This can not be overstated. I will appreciate if you can write a follow up to your posting and correct yourself.
It is not a catalyst, let alone "significant". And Q1 does not end until 31 Mar. And what exactly do you think the pps will be once it is out? You should read my post on catalysts vs milestones.
Pilot performance is merely a milestone for AMBS who is collecting more data on LymPro spec/sens. It better be above 90%. If any lower, it will actually create more selling pressure. Ever thought about that? Or is this also a "part of my scheme to create panic so that I can buy cheap theory"?
The phase1 numbers of 98/96 have already been revised to 91/92 and I can only hope it does not get any lower. No one will take a 90% chance on a blood test that says they have Alzheimer's, when they actually are healthy. I am long and will be closely watching the numbers from Pilot.
The problem with posters like you are you only present one side of the coin to the potential new investor. And resort to abuse when counter views are presented. Do not worry, you are not alone. It has been the story of mankind for thousands of years.
Coldcoffee/Bigbang: For newbies here on the mb coldcoffee used to post under the alias "bigbang," and was a massive pumper. He predicted, "as per sources " he had at AMBS that Gerald was sitting on "blockbuster data" that would explode the pps. He predicted the pps would be at $15 dollars within 6 months! (That was about 5 months ago) After it was shown that "bigbang" was a "bigbust" he posted he was going on a sabbatical to Tasmania and would not be posting anymore. However, due to careless management of his various alias postings, it was shown that "bigbang" was "coldcoffee." So if anyone on the mb is actually taking anything coldcoffee says seriously...think again!! LOL. His alias should be" "BIGBUFFOON."