Not predicting bankruptcy for DHT until some time after 2014 if ever-- Refi kicked that can down the road. No debt payments until 2014. As for cash flow positive--we'll see. Rates are still under pressure and operators will run at negative cash flow as long as the loss from operating is less than the cost of laying up a ship. Their entire fleet comes off charter over the next yr at rates of about 30k a day, as I recall, and will be leased in a mkt estimated to be 17k a day for 2012
As for it being a good bet- I'll go so far as to say, it isn't the worst bet you could make. But IMO divvy will be cut as soon as their lawyers tell them it's OK to do so.
But I will swear off all my vices (including being annoying on IMBs) if they cut the divie: These guys are FCF positive to rates of about $15,700 (includes operating expenses of $13,000 per day plus 10M per year of maintenance capex)...
Avg. VLCC spot on Arabian Gulf to Far East route YTD is north of $28,000.
Last year comp is $22,000.
'10 comp is $55,000...
Long way to go to '10... But. Well ahead of last year.