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Smith Micro Software Inc. Message Board

  • analogphoneline analogphoneline Mar 22, 2013 11:40 AM Flag

    The trend

    The trend on SMSI is still down. I would say up from $1.25 if the volume had picked up.
    I assume we will not hit a new 52 week low and am wondering where to buy. A continuation of this trend could take us to $1.15 but a reversal on any interest whatsoever could take us over $2.00. If you wait long enough I am almost certain SMSI will get over $2.00 but I don't like to lose money short term. Either way the risk/reward range is between $1.15-$2.00. Twenty cents to the downside vs. sixty five cents to the upside. SMSI is probably a better buy at 1.50 on the way up than down here in the near term. All the stock needs is one announcement and the trend will turn. All the carrots thrown out have just not attracted the Easter bunny and his followers yet.

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    • Not a bad analysis of a VERY risky stock.
      There is also the possibility that this stock is in terminal decline that while not a straight downward trend is never-the-less down with infreqent ups that have ever lower peaks.
      What is clear to me is the share price swings are longer in period and lower in amplitude = the risk / reward ratio is lower for traders.
      I do find it interesting that Bill has once again tried to re-invent the company to which he deserves much credit. Will there be buyers for his latest vision? We will find out in the next few quarters, but the rosy future is ALWAYS just 3 - 4 quarters away for SMSI.

    • "A continuation of this trend could take us to $1.15 but a reversal on any interest whatsoever could take us over $2.00"

      If you are in the market for buying shares it is a dangerous game to wait. As I have posted before, it is not in shareholders or the company's interests to release news of new contracts at this stage. They need to be sure whether or not they will reach profitability this year. If they are certain they can reach profitability this year then news may be released which will drive the share price much higher and very suddenly.

      Until they are sure, they will not release news because, in the unlikely event they do need financing, they will want to drive the share price higher by releasing news closer to the time they may need to raise finance to minimise dilution and maximise the amount of money raised. So they will hold on to any good news until they are certain they can reach profitability.

      I think it is inconceiveable that none of the 15 trialiists will proceed to full contract. They have a much superior product to Birdbrain, and others, with their ability to support advanced use cases. This is underlined by Tekelec's decision to partner with SMSI. And this deal should not be underestimated as Tekelec has excellent sales channels into many operators in the USA and around the world. Read about their Policy Everywhere vision and their four stage plan. SMSI is now part of that plan and many operators have already selected Tekelec to provide their DSR. So Tekelec will be priming any proposals for they Mobile Policy Gateway with SMSI providing their Netwise Director product.

      There is no doubt that when official news is released the share price will not rise by a few cents - it will double before the open especially if they provide any guidance that profitability will be achieved this year without any further cuts.

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