I can't figure out why the analysts can't wrap their minds around this stock. It has $5.60 per share in cash net of debt, and has positive levered free cash flow of 7 mill and operating cash flow of 20 mill. So it's not like their $100 mill in cash is going to get eaten up in ops. $14.05-$5.60 is an $8.47 effective share price, and the high estimate for '14 is $1.11 per share (which I think is doable.) That's an effective PE of 7.6, and this should be at a PE of 20X 2014's $11.11 (high est), or about $22.
Also, ADNC is a very likely take out candidate given how strategic their IP is to the next generation of devices (voice-based devices). Likely acquirors are much much bigger than ADNC (GOOG, AAPL, INTC, etc.), and because the absolute value of a purchase price would be a drop in the bucket for these guys, it's entirely possible to see ADNC taken out at a very high multiple.
Seems like a hedge fund (SAC?) is just exiting their position in ADNC to meet redemptions. Volume isn't huge, suggesting it's just one seller. With no news and huge China positive from a few days ago, it seems likely to rebound. This happens all the time with high quality small cap stocks: hedge funds that are long have to sell in a price-insensitive fashion.
1. 55% of revenue attributable to one customer
2. Recency effect, we all got hit hard when they lost iPhone. And it plunged from $15 to $18 range down to $5 to $6 range (only the steel harted were able to double or tipple up on the dip).
It may well be headed to $22, for sure at face value it is worth $30.