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  • upittbaseball upittbaseball Dec 23, 2010 9:16 AM Flag

    Exxon and Petrohawk deal???

    Someone out there please help? Looking at this deal, what dollar amount would be given to QBC and the Haynesville acreage, using this formula Exxon used?

    Love to see $1 dollar today.

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    • Applying the same formula to QBC, $ 1.92 X 29.2 proved = $ 56 mil for QBC. IMO, that would not be a reasonable valuation for QBC since HK is better proved and prducing than QBC. QBC has more potential in the ground. Can't make the comparison, that's why I prefer using acreage for a valuation.

      "The sale values the assets' proved reserves at $1.92 per thousand cubic feet equivalent, according to brokerage firms Global Hunter Securities and Tudor Pickering Holt.

      This is about 32 percent lower than what Exxon Mobil was estimated to have paid for XTO, which it acquired in December last year.

      Petrohawk estimates Fayetteville upstream proved reserves of about 299 billion cubic feet equivalent as of Dec. 31, 2009, and current production of 98 million cubic feet equivalent per day."

      • 1 Reply to cpb38
      • As we increase our proved reserves towards the 360 estimate, you can see potential value.

        300est x 1.92 = 576. For quick calc, net of debt est. 500 or $5/share.

        Of course there a lot of variables:
        - value of midstream assets
        - price of ng increase / decrease
        - actual drilling results increases / decreases the 300 #
        - additional reserves in bossier and/or cotton which are not in the 300
        - some analyst thought 1.92 paid was low

        To name a few.

        Other things to consider from their Nov presentation:
        - SPE Proven number is 92 vs SEC proven of 30* or
        92 x $1.92 = $176.64 vs $57.6
        SPE is used by financial institutions.
        *Both the SPE and SEC number are as of June -- any additional well results since then,inclusive of the most recent we are waiting on, will increase these numbers.

        Just some quick thoughts / info. Looks like a lot of upside.

        To name a few

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