This offering is actually a good thing, to increase the amount of outstanding shares will open the doors to more institutional exposure. The big insti's want in and Netlist is probably getting guidance from them to do this offering, and to do it now before any major OEM announcement.
I have been in High Tech sales for 20 years now and after reviewing the presentation that Netlist had put together, which someone posted here about a month ago, I sat back and thought to myself, this product is not like selling Ice to Eskimo's. I could sell this product in my sleep with all the benefits it brings to the table for an end customer. And the market opportunity is beyond imagination.
My best guess is after the 1st runs of their product they will be announcing major OEM deals with either IBM, HP, and or Dell, shortly after. This is my best guess. Each of the vendors always try to leap frog each other with new advancements in technology to capture more marketshare from the other. So that being said, they the manufacturers are calling Netlist saying "I want to sign first. There was mention of Cisco in past e-mails, but I believe their OCS platform has their own implimentation regarding addressing the current memory contraints, ecspecial in a VMware environment.
Now keep in mind, these OEM relationships should happen relatively quickly, since their memory modules are plug and play. It's more of a quick test and blessing of the product if they are to support the memory in their systems.
Longs stay strong here, the MM's are just stepping this down for now prior to the offering getting priced. This will come back and it will come back fast. And the shorts, well they won't have time to pull up their pants.
Good Luck Longs.
Google purchased patents from MetaRAM to hedge their bet, but the patents they purchased are now considered stolen IP, and isn't worth a penny or worth the paper it's printed on.
While it does seem that GOOG bought MetaRAM IP in a desperate attempt at having something in hand, the IP that MetaRAM was using in it's retaliatory suit against NLST was still retained by MetaRAM (which it had to in order to keep suit going).
As part of settlement, NLST licensed the IP MetaRAM was using against NLST.
I suspect this was the strongest IP that MetaRAM had, and it has surrendered that to NLST (in effect).
At the minimum the IP that MetaRAM held at time of settlement (i.e. this strongest IP) is now prevented from being used against NLST. Which means anyone who buys it from MetaRAM (be it GOOG), will not be able to use it against NLST.
The IP that MetaRAM has sold to GOOG (some related to stacked memory etc. which is not all that related to NLST - in fact NLST says it is inferior because of asymmetrical lines to memory) probably remains unencumbered.
In any case, the matter as moot (as you suggest) - since GOOG seems to have realized the quandary it is in. It can't delay things too long - because currently there is no supplier of this type of memory in the market EXCEPT NLST (MetaRAM is bankrupt, and Inphi and memory makers are awaiting JEDEC standardization, while JEDEC is awaiting clarification possibly so it can negotiate licensing terms from NLST).
Unlike other legal cases, in this case, GOOG will be the loser if it waits. There is no value to waiting longer - since OEM qualifications have started for NLST HyperCloud. GOOG might as well participate in that if it will be a user of this memory.
So I suspect a GOOG/NLST settlement may happen well before the 3-6 months OEM qualification period that was mentioned in Needham conference audio.
NLST's legal team has a good reputation, and I find the quick settlement of the MetaRAM lawsuit a perfect match for their temperament - it reduces distraction, plus brings one player in line - and is a signal for the rest.
MetaRAM was the biggest player in this space - the darling of Intel and others. Inphi was hoping to take it's place (but has little IP in this area).
NLST IP meanwhile goes back to March 2004 (from court filings) and stems from some work they did for Apple. It is the inventor of 4-rank memory (which is made by many manufacturers now - not clear about what the status of that is, because 4-rank as used by GOOG is infringement of NLST IP).
As the situation stands now, it is possible that a bunch of memory module makers are already in violation of NLST IP.
However, notice that NLST has only chosen to go after the core players MetaRAM, GOOG and Inphi.
All the other players are potential partners for NLST i.e. JEDEC/memory module makers like Micron.
Read my original post. Today's win was a one/two punch regarding MetaRAM lawsuit and soon to be Google lawsuit. Note last sentence in press release below.
Under the terms of the settlement, filed in U.S. District Courts in Delaware and Northern California, MetaRAM will not sell, offer to sell, release, or commercialize the MetaRAM DDR3 controllers in the U.S. or outside the U.S. Netlist contended that MetaRAM's DDR3 controllers and memory modules incorporating such controllers infringed its U.S. Patent No. 7,289,386, entitled "Memory Module Decoder." A provision in the settlement protects Netlist if another company purchases MetaRAM's patent and attempts to seek action against Netlist in the future.
Google purchased patents from MetaRAM to hedge their bet, but the patents they purchased are now considered stolen IP, and isn't worth a penny or worth the paper it's printed on. I heard that Google fired their agressive lawers who launched the original lawsuit against Netlist and retained a firm who is known for arbitration. Can you say a settlement is on the way?
Now back to my original post. Everything in that post is still valid and I'm now going to call out a (T minus 120 days) for the following to occur; all based on my speculation.
1. Settlement from Google announcement, Google to pay a royalty to Netlist for stolen IP being used in their servers. They won't admit guilt but will pay to utilize the technology.
2. Shelf offering will be completed to gain more Institutional exposure.
3. Netlist will secure at least one manufacturer press release within 90 days stating that they (server manufacturer) have certified Netlist HyperCloud technology for their servers. Soon after that 1st release, you will see other manufacturers endorsing HyperCloud as well, so look for several press releases in the near future.
3. Inphi lawsuit will be settled with Netlist.
4. HyperCoud will become a JEDEC memory standard.
5. Netlist will begin to recognize some revenue in Q2.
Todays action with the stock pulling back from it's highs was just weak hands, thinking "I better take what I can get from a bounce off this low".
Do your own do dilligence. We still need the 5 bullets above to be knocked out. However, today's win was huge and it sets things in motion here. Good luck to all the longs who stomached this heavy manipulation to the downside. I believe we will all be rewarded handsomely soon.
Tomorrow's action will be very telling if NLST can crack up over 4.50 and stay up, then we will know the weak hands are out and shorts have begun to cover.
Everything washes right accept #1 So what you are saying is we will probably see no financial award but get royalties going forward.I think that will depend on a number of things.Google will be in arbitration to do what they say they must do and that might be compensation and definitely royalty payments going forward.
Please read this thread for possibility of NLST prepping this as a "poison-pill" provision (since GOOG could be a hostile takeover party) and also raising cash along the way:
Re: OFFERING, SELL SELL SELL .. part1
Re: OFFERING, SELL SELL SELL .. part1
With a split, they don't dilute the current stockholders. With an offering, they do dilute the current stockholders. THIS IS BAD..
I was thinking about getting in on this earlier in the week. Whew! I'm so glad I didn't. Now I can short it tomorrow at the open.
Andy, don't worry about the dilution. It's mice nuts for now. Back in the day, I witnessed as a company go public at around $7.00 a share and then split 4 times, with the stock then peaking at around $100.00 a share. That company was EXDS. I knew many individuals over there that turned into instant millionaires.