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Fibrocell Science, Inc. Message Board

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  • dmesshian dmesshian Mar 23, 2012 12:35 PM Flag

    Genius Award "Secret Weapon" is Laviv - in April Elle

    The call on June 21, 2011, that launched "The MOTHER of all FCSC BEAR TRAPS" on the eve of FCSC FDA-approval by -- the famous insider -- "FCSC-laviv-pumper extra-ordinaire" Dr. Mukinaki.

    ******"No matter how you look at the market (Botox or various types of fillers as shown in the above link, page 23), laViv could easily achieve 100K treatments a year in a short few years after they build out their manufacturing capacity. In the first year, the company already stated that they expect to do 5000 treatments (above link, page 31). So, the ramp up rate will be very fast once the FDA gives their approval.

    What that means is that FCSC could expect 25M in revenue in the first year while ramping up to 500M in a short few years. So, what does that mean in terms of stock price?

    It is reasonable to assume that FCSC could be given a valuation at about 15 times revenue in the first year given the quick revenue ramp. The number of fully diluted shares is about 107M so the stock price should be around *3.50$ shortly after approval.*

    When they achieve 500M a year, the valuation multiple could reduce to a more normal five times revenue because the revenue ramp would slow down. Assuming that stock sales to build out manufacturing would bring the number of stocks to about 150M, that would mean a stock price over 15$ in a few years.

    The above, of course, does not account for any label extensions of laViv for acne and burn scars which could be worth far more. All this potential hinges on the FDA approval tomorrow! GLTA.******

    Read more:

    Yo pal, hiding behind your "face dancing: froyfriedman sobriquet"; I am not the only one who lost a cool $100K on that BEAR of a call, eh... mes/mon ami...

    Genius award, eh? You folks can stuff it. Bring back my $100K eh... that would be genius...

    You are so hosed!

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