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Beazer Homes USA Inc. Message Board

  • kamikazieee kamikazieee Apr 15, 2003 8:49 PM Flag

    OT: AAR

    Interesting day, huh Kb & Alex?

    SPORTY remains long, and took particular encouragement in the late news today.
    The fact that Carty paid off some millions due indicates BK was not his goal. The fact that everyone has conveniently decided to change the rules to get the concessions past the F/As has gotta be encouraging.
    If the FAs don't roll over tomorrow, they deserve what they get.
    Hard to watch today. The 12:00 30% drop was truly alarming. The halt (justifiable as there was an ass-wipe news-radio report that was at a minimum misleading) was certainly scary.
    FWIW: I assume that our quarterly divs are now being withheld under the 30day grace period.
    The news-radio report was really f cked. Why they have to report an unfinished story escapes me. By 2:30, when there was no announcemnt, everyone knew there were snags. They could have avoided yelling 'Fire!" in the crowded theatre until they knew there was fire and not just smoke. A lot of innocent people probably got shaken out for their bs. Obvious to everyone that Carty didn't want BK (else he'd do it at 2:01). and that they were negotiating some kind of face-saving settlement. From a legalistic standpoint, I thought it odds that the FAs didn't have a chance to change their votes after the terms of the offer were changed. It was like you vote on (green) pickles in a jar, and then it's (pink) pickles in a jar; and someone says "pickles is pickles."
    I am now much more confident that we shall prevail on the AAR matter. Much more. Too bad we gotta go through this stomach-churning nonsense. SPORTY SEZ: Gotta win BIG here, because SPORTY has certainly sweated BIG here.
    And tomorrow it may still not be concluded. I think they have til after the close to finish the [re]voting. If that ain't enough, SHORTY has HB problems and TBL problems. Problems to the right, problems to the left. SHORTY was on a roll. Now SHORTY is gettin' rolled.
    SPORTY says: Party on, dudes.

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    • Certainly it's "safe" til new years. And probably a lot longer, since pre-concessions and pre- govt money, they should have had that much csh anyway. Burn rate apparently only went to $6mil/day anyway, so I am not sure if Fitch is just being overly conservative. Of course, all these analyses are built on some fuel-price model and project some depressed level of travel; and meaningless in reality.
      Perhaps I'll only pitch 1/2 out. Anything over 11.50 and I'm 100% cashed out.
      I dunno. At 13, w/ a 15% current yield, it's probably a reasonable hold. The charts as I read them call for that w/in a week. We'll see how SHORTY reads the charts. At this point, after this much aggravation, less would be disappointing. I also think the common is good for 7 in about the same time frame. But who knows.

    • It looks like you'll be able to bail at $13 in a short while. Even at $13, this one pays a 15% coupon and gets, theoretically, cashed out at almost 100% capital gain. If I were you, I might trim but not exit entirely, just trim to comfort-ability.


    • Congrats to AAR/AMR longs, the flight attendants passed (not by much). And I'm glad too, because in the last half hour of trading I decided to re-take a position in AMR (at $4.13), though sadly only 1/5th the size of what I had. Interestingly though, I see that after hours AMR is only $4.77. So I think I was right about the risk/reward situation not being that great, if "yes" was worth only 54 cents more than the close of $4.23, as my guess would be a "no" could have cost $2.23 (assuming an open of $2.00) or possibly more. I eventually felt the odds of "yes" were only slightly better than "no", but clearly the downside would have been more than the upside, assuming that $4.77 is meaningful (which it might not be). If I can, I'll try to add more AMR tomorrow in the $4's.

    • I got too much if it craters, period.

      . My current thought is to bail at about 13 because I am questionsing the LT viability of the play. But who knows.
      Strong close is certainly promising. But I am too long here, and it is gut wrenching.
      A 4.30+ close (at 4.15 currently) will call for a gap up tomorrow. Unless, of course, they BK tonight.
      I have been moanin' about a big winner. This may be it. Don't want to count my money while I am sitting at the table, but 13 works for me.

      To further complicate matters I got a margin call in my speculative account today.

    • Kamigo,

      I see the neighborhood is deteriorating.

      Yes, I bought my AAR with the sense of putting a bet at the roulette table. Didn't add during the plunge, didn't subtract in the 8's recently.

      I figure I have a 40% chance of losing $3 here, and a 60% chance of gaining $19 plus however many coupon payments of 37% I can collect (all this assumes PAR). A wiser move might be to take a gain of $7 plus a couple of coupons.

      I don't think I have as big a position as you do (what the heck, this is cyberspace, I could PRETEND to have 60,000 shares at an avg cost of $3.72) but it will please me if it wins, and it won't make me too sad if it doesn't.



      quantumonline uses mtp-a (always symbol-dash-letter.)

      you still on the A[AR] team?

    • Tomorrow looks to be another roller coaster ride for AAR and AMR. I have no idea if the flight attendants will change enough votes to push it through, but I have a feeling they won't. The flight attendants aren't the brightest group in the world, and many seem to be assuming they can reject the contract and still keep their jobs at reasonable pay. Some also seem to think that Chapter 11 means AMR's debt will be wiped out (as in personal bankruptcy) thus freeing up more money to pay the workers. So evidently quite a few see no reason to vote "yes". Incredible that a group of people who are basically glorified day-maids or glorified waitresses can sink a gigantic company, without even fully understanding what they are doing. But that seems to be the case with AMR/AAR. I'm not even sure the short term payoff will be all that big if the flight bimbos vote "yes", AMR for example will likely only go to $4.25 and AAR to perhaps $8, short term. No and BK would really trash these stocks. So I don't see such a great risk/reward after all, unless both stocks open quite low - which they might. I was probably dumb to jump in more heavily when the pilots and mechanics had ratified - who would have guessed that the eminently replaceable flight bimbos would reject, and essentially walk away from paychecks they'll never see again in their lives?

      • 1 Reply to Alex1444
      • ST target for AAR is 13~. ST target for AMR is 8~.

        ST being defined in this case as less than two weeks. (Yeah, I know, that's a long way from here, etc.).

        F/As cannot possibly vote "No." How are they ever gonna look a pilot in the eye knowing they tanked his pension? How are they gonna work with the groundsguys?

        Carty wants to avoid BK. His making the interest payment is a multi-million dollar bet on the F/As, and you know he didn't do it w/o MAJOR reassurences by the union. His making the payment is also a clear indication he wants to avoid BK- this is something I was less sure of prior to his making the payment.
        Technically, all the volatility and major shakeouts of the last few days are not untypical of a stock coming off a major decades-low bottom.
        This could be bigger than you imagine. In any case, HOLD for at least a few weeks. You know the day traders are gonna be running in and out of traffic trying to pick up pennies. When enough of them get truck by the truck, we'll pick their pockets- but only folding money. No pennies.
        There is about no chance the stews reject.

        This is the land of the free. Unlike the pinko a few posts back, let us keep it the home of the brave. All this bouncy-ass shit is meaningless. The stews will go w/ the plan (how could they not? Better terms than were voted on at 49%-51%, and they stand alone as obstructionists).
        This is gonna be big.

11.17-0.07(-0.62%)Oct 21 4:02 PMEDT