A class action lawsuit has been filed against luckbox, Yuri, and the Kodiakbull for the destruction of the wealth of all homebuilder short selling posters. It is illegal to be so naive about the financial markets.
God Bless America
Robert Fargo, Attorney
I posted the next day that I had missed a LO in at 59 and change to cover by a small fraction.
I didn't care to chase as I ddin't expect the kind of strength we saw.
Additionally, covering would have forced me to sell some longs to avoid being too imbalanced.
I did soon thereafte sell 1/2 my AES_PC (grown too large) and 1/2 my AAR (too scared to hold it in the size I had).
Still expect to make money on BZH, believe it or not! As part of a hedged portfolio I find it
currently unprofitable, but a cost of doing business.
<<< "Last chance today to get out of HB." >>>
Yeah, we really dodged a bullet! Lol.
The thing is, as annoying as the shorts are, the more they post the more we know we are ok. The shorts are like the canaries in the coal mine; as like as they are chirping, we longs are gonna be fine. It's when they finally disappear that we might have to worry. But I get the feeling it will be a long time before the shorts disappear, and at much higher price levels for the HBs.
"Last chance today to get out of HB."
I guess us longs got a lucky break today. Phew!!
BZH has really had 2 decent days. Yesterday it was down less than the total market and today up higher than the overall market and other HB's. If the volume was higher I would be very encouraged.
<<< If SHORTY was smarter, he'd have cut his losses on the HBs much earlier.... but Wayne didn't ring the bell... Somebody Tell Wayne to please ring a bell at the bottom so SHORTY can cover! >>>
I think Wayne has been ringing the bell for you shorts to get out of the pool, for quite a while. So have a lot of others, including myself, dosomer, slamjammer, mrtuttle, remanaz, mayor, boozer_homes, ezzymuny, sdowney1, stefaith, etc. (too many to name them all, sorry for those I forgot to include).
You had an interesting post on April 10 (after hours) in which you said:
<<< Next time we break 60, I think I'll exit.>>>
Closing price that day was $63.66. I remarked that you might not get a chance to cover BZH breaking $60 on the downside, and speculated that your next chance to cover on a break of $60 could be on the upside, after a 2/1 split (i.e. you could cover as BZH broke above $120 on a current basis):
To some extent that could be considered "ringing a bell", could it not? But I guess you didn't want to hear it, so now instead of covering in the $63's, BZH is in the $76's. Even jmny covered when BZH went above $75, assuming he stayed true to his own plan. Oh well, at least you have those good buys of the big dividend paying preferreds.
SHORTY also considers the HBs to be cyclical, and thinks their earnings are peaking.
If SHORTY was smarter, he'd have cut his losses on the HBs much earlier; but had he done so, he would have shorted something else to remain hedged. And that probably would have been equally unpleasant.
So here I sit, hedged (now about 60% short as of last week) and doing fine. Not nearly as fine as if I had been 200% long at the bottom, but Wayne didn't ring the bell, so I didn't know we'd have a major last-gasp rally.
Somebody Tell Wayne to please ring a bell at the bottom so SHORTY can cover!
Lucki/Kamikaziee, I'm happy for you that you are having a good year investmentwise, despite massive losses in your short positions. You recommend being hedged, and you blame your short losses on hedging, ok.
However, rather than looking at it that your longs have been winners and your shorts were losers (so far this year), why not look at how your fundamental buys have been vs. your chart-driven positions? Seems to me that you were buying AAR under $3/share, right? And that has been a great buy. But when AAR was that low, I bet a "chart analysis" would have said to stay away. You bought it because of the high dividend, and the risk/reward potential, correct? That means you bought based on fundamentals, not charts.
But your short position in the homebuilders was driven by chart reading, no? So really you have succeeded in your fundamentally driven postions, not your chart driven ones. Think how much better you'd have done if you had stuck to only your fundamental buys, and avoided your chart driven shorts. If of course you prefer to be both short and long at the same time, why not look for some fundamental shorts? I don't know of any right now, but I'd think that if you can find a company with a PE over 50, price/book over 5, in a fairly mature, competitive industry, on a company that has no particular competitive advantage, that would be a decent fundamental short. You might even combine fundamental shorting with chart driven shorting, i.e. only short stocks that are both fundamentally over AND the charts "tell" you they are going down. In doing so, I would think you'd have a better record of success than in merely looking at charts when selecting your short positions. If you'd done this, you would not have shorted a sector where the PE's were in the mid single digits, the EPS growth is averaging 20% or more (past 5 years), and the price is close to book value. Just a thought, obviously you feel you are doing things "right" because you've had a good year so far - congratulations - but frankly, it looks like you could have done better if you'd considered fundamentals more strongly before taking and staying in a losing short position.
Hey SHORTY, how have you done with your chart-driven "investments" in the
homebuilder sector over time? Be honest.>>>
SHORTY has lost well into the six figures on his shorts. Not since HI (Household Int'l) has SHORTY made a profit on any short position.
Is SHORTY honest enough for you?
SHORTY remains hedged. SHORTY is having a hell of a year DESPITE his shorts. Soon, SHORTY will have a hell of a year BECAUSE of his shorts.
SHORTY recommends that everyone be hedged all the time. On 9/11/01 SHORTY's concerns were not for his portfolio.
Oh hello. I thought you wouldn't be reading my posts again. Well, while you're here, for your sake Alex, get out. The market is really going down!!! Please believe me. I'm trying to save you money.
<<< Last chance today to get out of HB. Going South >>>
Kennel, your cockiness and "self-assuredness" only reinforces to me that their are still a lot of foolish people shorting the homebuilders. Which means there's still plenty of upside left in them, probably even in the short term, even though it's only the long term that I care about. As to the chartists getting out of the market in 2000-2002, well I wouldn't have wanted to be out of the market during that time. Having been heavily in the homebuilders (also heavily in trucking stock ABFS at that time) I made serious money in the three years overall 2000, 2001, 2002 even though I was down 15% in that last year. You do your chartist thing, I'll do my fundamentalist thing. I'm actually glad there are chartists, because they enable the longs to pick up huge bargains that would not otherwise be possible if everyone were a fundamentalist.
alex beat the averages but still lost? Does that make you feel better? I know many chartists whose work either got them out of the market or put them short and did very well in 2000-2001-2002. Most fundamental guessers had no clue as to when to get out and I know many who lost 80% of their retirement(mostly in tech. Last chance today to get out of HB. Going South