... it's done a 50% Fibonacci retracement from its high of $7.99.
The question is, of course, will it sink further and hit the 61.8% retracement?
Personnally, I think that palladium is truly a scarce commodity, and that economies worldwide are not slowing down (e.g., more cars are being purchased.) Therefore, on the fundamentals, I believe that palladium will be in strong demand, and therefore, this could be a bottom for PAL.
On the other hand, as we all know, markets are not always rational!
I think if PAL closes significantly below $4, it will be headed toward the 61.8% retracement - which would put it at about $3.05
"Therefore, on the fundamentals, I believe that palladium will be in strong demand, and therefore, this could be a bottom for PAL."
PAL is not about the price of PD. PAL is about whether they can execute as a mining company. Has PD gone down 50%? Even at $700-$750 PAL could (should) make a lot of money. PAL is a leveraged gamble on a mining company. If you are bullish on PD and you want to track PD , use PALL. For PAL, higher metal prices will be gravy, not the meat. PAL has no control of Pd prices, but they do have control over their costs - if you believe what mgt says, in a few years (2,3,4?) their costs could be $150. With costs about $500 now, that would be like PD gaining $350. None of this will happen this year and only somewhat next but 2013,2014,2015 could be very good to stockholders.
In general there is upward pressure on costs - labor, materials, energy so I think a $200 eventual low cost is more reasonable.