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North American Palladium Limited ┼×irket Message Board

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  • tristrem tristrem May 12, 2011 4:28 PM Flag

    Could it hold $4.00?

    ... it's done a 50% Fibonacci retracement from its high of $7.99.

    The question is, of course, will it sink further and hit the 61.8% retracement?

    Personnally, I think that palladium is truly a scarce commodity, and that economies worldwide are not slowing down (e.g., more cars are being purchased.) Therefore, on the fundamentals, I believe that palladium will be in strong demand, and therefore, this could be a bottom for PAL.

    On the other hand, as we all know, markets are not always rational!

    I think if PAL closes significantly below $4, it will be headed toward the 61.8% retracement - which would put it at about $3.05

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    • "Therefore, on the fundamentals, I believe that palladium will be in strong demand, and therefore, this could be a bottom for PAL."


      PAL is not about the price of PD. PAL is about whether they can execute as a mining company. Has PD gone down 50%? Even at $700-$750 PAL could (should) make a lot of money. PAL is a leveraged gamble on a mining company. If you are bullish on PD and you want to track PD , use PALL. For PAL, higher metal prices will be gravy, not the meat. PAL has no control of Pd prices, but they do have control over their costs - if you believe what mgt says, in a few years (2,3,4?) their costs could be $150. With costs about $500 now, that would be like PD gaining $350. None of this will happen this year and only somewhat next but 2013,2014,2015 could be very good to stockholders.

      In general there is upward pressure on costs - labor, materials, energy so I think a $200 eventual low cost is more reasonable.

      And then there is Au. No comment.

 
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